刘晓敏 张天萌

摘要 甘肃省大部分地区干旱少雨，水资源承載力是制约甘肃省社会经济发展的因素之一，评价甘肃省水资源承载力可以指导其社会经济的可持续发展和水资源的可持续利用。选取水资源系统、社会经济系统两个方面的指标，通过熵权法对甘肃省2005—2017年和2017年甘肃省各市水资源承载力进行评价。结果表明：甘肃省2005—2016年水资源承载力较低;2017年甘肃省大部分市水资源承载力较低，差别较大，水资源承载力不平衡。甘肃省在快速发展经济的同时，水资源利用效率得到了提高。鉴于甘肃省水资源比较缺乏的现状，提出了继续提高甘肃省水资源利用效率、进一步减少农田灌溉用水量、促进节水农业的发展，提高农田灌溉用水效率的建议。

关键词 水资源承载力;综合评价;熵权法;甘肃省

中图分类号 TV 213  文献标识码 A

文章编号 0517-6611（2021）14-0180-04

Abstract Most areas in Gansu Province are dry and rainless， and water resource carrying capacity is one of the factors that restrict the social and economic development of Gansu Province. Evaluation of water resource carrying capacity in Gansu Province can guide the sustainable development of social economy and the sustainable utilization of water resource. This paper selects two indexes of water resources system and social and economic system， and evaluates the water resources carrying capacity of each city in Gansu Province from 2005 to 2017 by entropy weight method. The evaluation results showed that the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu Province was low from 2005 to 2016. In 2017， the water resources carrying capacity of most cities in Gansu Province was relatively low， with large differences and unbalanced water resources carrying capacity. Along with the rapid development of economy， the efficiency of water resources utilization has been improved in Gansu Province. In view of the shortage of water resources in Gansu Province， this paper puts forward the suggestions of improving the efficiency of water resources utilization in Gansu Province， further reducing the water consumption of farmland irrigation， promoting the development of watersaving agriculture， and improving the water use efficiency of farmland irrigation.

Key words Water resource carrying capacity;Comprehensive evaluation;Entropy method;Gansu Province

基金项目 教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目（19YJC790118）;河北经贸大学京津冀一体化发展协同创新中心经费资助（0112200360）。

作者简介 刘晓敏（1975—），女，河北蠡县人，副研究员，博士，从事农业经济、资源与环境经济研究。

收稿日期 2020-10-15;修回日期 2020-11-05

随着人口的增长和社会经济的发展，我国尤其是北方地区水资源短缺愈加严重，成为制约社会经济可持续发展的重要因素。水资源短缺日趋严重，水资源合理开发利用、可持续利用已经成为政府及社会各界的关注与重视的问题[1]。水资源承载力反映了水资源满足社会经济发展的能力。水资源承载力是缺水地区制约社会经济发展的“瓶颈”因素，它对一个国家或地区发展规模和综合发展的影响至关重要[2]。……