中图分类号：G846 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-2076（2025）03-0117-10

Abstract：Since mixed doubles table tennis became anoficial event at the2O20 Tokyo Olympics，its competitive value and strategic position have undergone structural changes.Exploring the winning rules of this event is of great practical significance for optimizing China's Olympicpreparation system.Based on the unique \"eight-round\"structure of the mixed doubles rules，this studyconstructed a genderdynamic analysis framework and adopted amethod combining video analysisand mathematicalstatistics toconductasystematicanalysisof thetop international table tennisevents in the past five years.The research found that there was no significant diffrence in competitive effctivenessbetween samesex and opposite-sex service games.The outcome of the game depends on the tactical execution eficiency of key sequenceswithin theround.Intheeight-roundtactical system，inthefemale-to-femaleround，alocaladvantage was formedthroughthe men'sthirdshot'sattack，whileinthefemale-to-femaleround，themen's fourthshot'sdefensive stabilitywas insufficient，which became a systematicshortcoming.Under thesame tactical scenarios，genderatributes haveasignificantmoderating efectontheeffectiveness ofrounds.Thisresearch breaks through thetraditional analytical paradigm of singles events，constructs a dynamic model related to genderand rounds，provides theoretical support for China's mixed doubles event to cope with the Olympic\"singlecombination participation\"ruleand optimize the allcation of tactical resources，and promotes the transformation ofthe training system towards a data-driven scientific paradigm.

Key Words：table tenns; mixed doubles competition; wining paterns;eight-round system; points scored and lost; gender differences

乒乓球混双项目自2020年东京奥运会成为正式比赛项目以来，其在竞技体系中的战略地位发生了根本性转变，已从边缘性“附属项目”发展为各国奥运战略的核心竞争领域[1]。我国选手在东京奥运会混双决赛中的意外失利与巴黎奥运会的金牌突破，共同凸显了“单一组合参赛”规则约束下的关键矛盾：传统单打项目的技战术理论体系难以满足混双项目精细化备战的特殊需求。这一矛盾在巴黎奥运会淘汰赛阶段得到集中体现，即四分之一决赛后的连续三轮险胜过程中，虽然我国组合最终夺冠，但比赛数据揭示的轮次优劣势显著波动现象，暴露出当前理论对混双项目动态制胜规律认知仍存在结构性缺陷。

当前，乒乓球研究领域呈现显著的单打主导特征。单打项目已形成了完全成熟的“三段指标评估法”等理论体系[2-5]，但其分析框架建立在运动员独立决策的基础上，无法解释混双项目中性别组合动态性引发的战术协同效应[6-8]。尽管有学者提出的“八轮次三段法\"模型为双打及混双技战术分析提供了基础框架，但其研究视角主要集中于发接发轮次的时序转换规律，对性别组合差异如何影响轮次得失分的内在机制仍有待深入探讨。例如，同性发球轮与异性发球轮在战术选择、击球质量及得分率上的差异机制尚未明晰。这种理论的缺失直接导致实践中难以精准识别优势轮次并优化战术资源配置。……