颜筱熹 涂艺燕 林本喜

摘 要：【目的/意义】随着中国水果产业对外贸易扩大，亚热带水果进口增长迅猛，对中国亚热带水果产业冲击日益加深，通过对中国亚热带水果产业进行安全评估，以期为中国亚热带水果产业的发展以及地区的经济发展提供政策依据。【方法/过程】依据《RESSET农林牧渔数据库》、统计年鉴、海关数据以及国研网国际贸易研究及决策支持系统等相关数据，采用产业安全评估体系对亚热带水果的产业安全度进行分析，并选取亚热带水果进口额与亚热带水果产业安全度综合指数等数据，对中国亚热带水果主产区产业安全影响因素进行回归分析。【结果/结论】结果表明，中国亚热带水果产业2005-2019年处于不安全状态;水果进口对于中国亚热带水果产业安全有显著的影响，应进一步加强对中国亚热带水果进口的品质、价格以及数量的重点监测以及加大财政对亚热带水果产业的支持补贴以提升中国亚热带水果的国际竞争力，从而提高中国亚热带水果产业的安全度。

关键词：水果进口;亚热带水果产业;产业安全

Abstract：【Objective/Meaning】With the expansion of the foreign trade of fruit industry in China， the imports of subtropical fruit increased rapidly， and the impact on the subtropical fruit industry in China was deepening day by day. The security assessment of the subtropical fruit industry in China was conducted in this paper， thus to provide policy basis for the development of subtropical fruit industry and the regional economic development. 【Methods/Procedures】Based on the relevant data from RESSET Database of Agriculture， Forestry， Animal Husbandry and Fishery， the statistical yearbooks， the Customs Data， and the international trade research and decision support system of DRCNet， the industrial security assessment system was adopted to analyze the industrial safety degree of subtropical fruits. And by selecting the amount of imports and the comprehensive index of the industrial safety degree of subtropical fruits， the analysis of regression was conducted on the influencing factors of industrial security in the main subtropical fruit producing areas in China. 【Results/Conclusions】The results showed that the subtropical fruit industry in China was in an unsafe state from 2005 to 2019. The imports of fruit had significant effects on the security of subtropical fruit industry in China. In order to enhance the international competitiveness of subtropical fruit industry in China， it was necessary to further strengthen the key monitoring of the quality， price and quantity of imported subtropical fruit in China and to increase the financial support and subsidies for the subtropical fruit industry， so as to improve the security of subtropical fruit industry in China.

Key words： import of fruit; subtropical fruit industry; industrial security

隨着全球化进程的不断深入，国际竞争以及摩擦加剧使水果产业安全问题日渐突出。水果产业是一个具有很强区域性特征的产业，虽然对整个农业不构成根本性影响，但对于地区经济及当地的果农收入影响重大。现阶段，中国居民对进口亚热带水果的需求不断增加，亚热带水果进口持续增加，亚热带水果产业已成为中国水果产业不可或缺的重要组成部分，且其产业安全正面临着严峻挑战。……