周哲欣 董雅慧 庄佩芬

摘 要：【目的/意义】把握中国与澳大利亚羊肉贸易状况，探究其贸易特征、影响因素和贸易潜力，有助于提升中国羊肉的国际竞争力，推进双边羊肉贸易的发展。【方法/过程】利用UN Comtrade数据库，描述1999-2018年中国与澳大利亚羊肉贸易总体状况，用贸易结合度指数（TCD）、显示性比较优势指数（RCA）和贸易竞争力指数（TC）分析两国羊肉贸易的互补性和竞争性，通过引力模型实证分析羊肉贸易的影响因素与贸易潜力。【结果/结论】结果显示：中国羊肉国际竞争力较低，而澳大利亚羊肉国际竞争力强，两国羊肉贸易联系密切，羊肉双边贸易的潜力大，指出要进一步发展中澳自贸区、提高中国羊肉质量及国际竞争力。

关键词：羊肉;引力模型;贸易潜力

Abstract：【Objective/Meaning】By grasping the situation of mutton trade between China and Australia， and exploring the trade characteristics， influencing factors， and trade potential， it would be conducive to enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese mutton and promote the development of the bilateral trade of mutton. 【Methods/Procedures】By using the UN Comtrade database， the overall situation of mutton trade between China and Australia from 1999 to 2018 was described in this paper， and then the complementarity and competitiveness of mutton trade between the two countries were analyzed by using the trade combination index （TCD）， revealed comparative advantage index （RCA）， and trade competitiveness index （TC）. Last， the influencing factors and trade potential of mutton trade were empirically analyzed through the gravity model. 【Results/Conclusions】The results showed that the international competitiveness of Chinese mutton was relatively low， while that of Australian mutton was strong. The mutton trade between the two countries was closely linked and the bilateral mutton trade had great potential. Therefore， it was necessary to further develop China-Australia Free Trade Zone and improve the quality and international competitiveness of Chinese mutton.

Key words： mutton; gravity model; trade potential

近年来，羊肉成为国际肉类贸易间主要的肉类品种，中国是世界上羊存栏量、出栏量、羊肉产量最多的国家，澳大利亚是羊肉生产和出口强国。中澳两国签订自贸协定，中方承诺自澳大利亚进口的羊肉將采取线性降税方式逐年降低进口关税，并在协定实施第9年（2023年）实现零关税，该协定会使原有的中澳双边羊肉贸易状况发生改变。随着中澳自贸协定升级和“一带一路”建设的推进，中国羊肉将面临更加激烈的国际竞争，研究中澳两国羊肉贸易有助于提升中国羊肉的国际竞争力，推进中澳双边羊肉贸易的发展，具有一定现实意义。因此，本文以1999-2018年两国羊肉贸易数据为基础，对中国和澳大利亚羊肉贸易总体状况进行分析，从竞争性和互补性两方面分析两国羊肉贸易特征，通过构建引力模型测算两国羊肉贸易影响因素和贸易潜力，并提出对策建议。……