郭凌曜 蒋元华 张成成

摘要 基于湖南省96個地面气象观测站1961—2019年气温、降水资料，运用数理统计方法，开展湖南省油茶气象灾害变化规律分析，结果表明，1961—2019年湖南省油茶花期低温阴雨、幼果期低温、果实膨大高峰期干旱、油脂转化积累高峰期高温等灾害发生次数增减趋势不显著，但有年代际变化，近10年发生次数较多;果实成熟期阴雨灾害发生次数呈显著减少趋势，但近10年发生次数亦偏多。湖南省油茶花期低温阴雨灾害发生频率总体呈北高南低分布，发生频率有增大趋势，高值区域向湘中偏北一带聚集;幼果期低温灾害高发区主要位于东部山区，西部地区发生频率在减小;油茶果实膨大高峰期干旱灾害发生频率呈东高西低分布，高值区域主要位于洞庭湖区至衡邵盆地一带，洞庭湖区发生频率在减小，湘中偏南地区在发展;油茶油脂转化积累高峰期高温灾害发生频率呈南高北低分布，高发中心主要位于衡阳地区，其变化趋势为西部地区发生频率增大、南部高中心范围增大;油茶果实成熟期阴雨灾害总体呈西高东低分布，发生频率在降低。

关键词 油茶;气象灾害;变化规律;湖南省

中图分类号 S 42  文献标识码 A

文章编号 0517-6611（2021）16-0203-07

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2021.16.055   开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Changes of Meteorological Disasters of  Camellia oleifera  in Hunan Province

GUO Ling-yao，JIANG Yuan-hua，ZHANG Cheng-cheng （Hunan Climate Center， Changsha，Hunan 410118）

Abstract Based on the temperature and precipitation data of 96 surface meteorological observation stations in Hunan Province from 1961 to 2019， using mathematical statistics， the analysis of the changes in the meteorological disasters of  Camellia oleifera  in Hunan Province had been carried out. The results showed that from 1961 to 2019，the number of disasters such as low temperature and rain during the flowering period of  Camellia oleifera  in Hunan Province， low temperature during the young fruit period， drought during the peak fruit expansion period， and high temperature during the peak oil conversion accumulation period did not increase or decrease significantly.However， there were inter-decadal changes， which had occurred more frequently in the past 10 years.During the fruit ripening period， the number of the occurrence of rainy disasters showed a significant decrease， and the number of occurrences in the past 10 years was also relatively high.The frequency of low temperature and rainy disasters during the blooming period of  Camellia oleifera  in Hunan Province was generally higher in the north than in the south， and the frequency tends to increase;the high value areas gathered in the northern part of central Hunan.The areas with high incidence of low-temperature disasters during the young fruit stage were mainly located in the eastern mountainous area， while the frequency of occurrence in the western area was decreasing.The frequency of drought disasters during the peak period of  Camellia oleifera  fruit swelling was high in the east and low in the west. The high value areas were mainly located in the Dongting Lake area to the Hengshao Basin. The frequency of the Dongting Lake area was decreasing， and the southern part of Hunan was developing. The frequency of high-temperature disasters during the peak period of oil-tea oil conversion accumulation was high in the south and low in the north. The high-incidence center was mainly located in Hengyang area， the frequency of occurrence increased in the western region， and the range of the southern high center increased.During the ripening period of  Camellia oleifera  fruit， the distribution of rainy disasters was generally higher in the west and lower in the east， and the frequency of occurrence was decreasing.

Key words  Camellia oleifera; Meteorological disasters;Change rule;Hunan Province

发展油茶对提高食用植物油自给水平、改善食物消费结构、促进山区农民脱贫致富、实施山区乡村振兴等方面具有重要意义[1]。油茶种植同所有露天作物，气象灾害是产量、品质的重要影响因素，油茶气象灾害主要有霜冻、低温、阴雨、高温、干旱等，但不同区域油茶的主要气象灾害不同，不同的年代际油茶气象灾害也存在差异[2-17]。……