皮青兰 张永福

摘要 [目的]尋求符合哈密市经济发展现实需要的可持续发展的水资源配置方案。[方法]以哈密市为研究区域，以经济效益最优为目标，以水资源为约束条件采用粒子群优化算法（PSO）建立耕地用水优化配置模型，获得哈密市不同农作物类型的适宜种植面积，确定农业用水总量与产出效益，使用DEA模型中的C2R模型分别对优化前后的哈密市农业用水效率进行评价。[结果]PSO优化预测2025年耕地总面积为70 635 hm2，总效益达29.02亿元，比2015—2019年最高效益（2017年25.88亿元）提升了12.13%;优化预测的2025年耕地单位面积效益达4.11万元，比2015—2019年最高单位面积效益（2019年2.73万元）提升了50.50%;DEA分析的C2R模型打分结果表明，粒子群优化后的结果更为优秀。[结论]优化后的方案在满足哈密市工业用水需求的同时又能提升哈密市农业用水的效益，该优化结果可为哈密市未来农业水资源的分配与利用提供科学依据。

关键词 种植结构优化;水资源约束;粒子群优化算法;DEA模型;哈密市

中图分类号 F 301.21  文献标识码 A  文章编号 0517-6611（2021）16-0070-05

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2021.16.020   开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Study on Optimization of Cultivated Land Structure under Water Constraint in Hami City

PI Qing-lan1，2， ZHANG Yong-fu1，2

（1.College of Resources and Environment Science， Xinjiang University， Urumqi， Xinjiang 830046;2.Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry Education， Xinjiang University， Urumqi， Xinjiang 830046）

Abstract [Objective] To seek a sustainable water resource allocation plan that meets the actual needs of economic development in Hami City.[Method]Taking Hami City as the research area， taking the optimal economic benefits as the goal， and taking water resources as constraints， the particle swarm optimization （PSO） was used to establish an optimal allocation model of cultivated land water， to obtain suitable planting areas for different crop types in Hami City， to determine the total amount of agricultural water use and output benefits，and the C2R model in the DEA model was used to evaluate the agricultural water efficiency before and after optimization in Hami City.[Result]After optimization of PSO， it was predicted that the total cultivated land area in 2025 would be 70 635 hm2， and the total benefit would reach 2.902 billion yuan， which was 12.13% higher than the highest benefit from 2015 to 2019 （2.588 billion yuan in 2017）.The optimally predicted benefit per unit area of cultivated land in 2025 would reach 41，100 yuan， which was 50.50% higher than the highest benefit per unit area from 2015 to 2019 （27，300 yuan in 2019）.The scoring results of the C2R model analyzed by DEA showed that the results of particle swarm optimization were better.[Conclusion]The optimized scheme can not only meet the industrial water demand in Hami City， but also improve the efficiency of agricultural water use in Hami City. The optimized results can provide a scientific basis for the future distribution and utilization of agricultural water resources in Hami City.

Key words Planting structure optimization;Water resource constraints;Particle swarm optimization（PSO）;DEA model;Hami City

水资源格局决定发展格局。水资源不仅是地球上所有生物生存不可或缺的物质基础，人类生活更是离不开水资源，工农业生产与社会经济发展均需水资源来支撑[1-2]。种植结构的优化大致分为2个阶段：第1个阶段是在计划经济时期，农作物的种植比例由政府控制，主要目的是满足人口所需的必要的粮食作物，形成单一多产高产的种植结构种植;第2阶段为计划经济时代，因为资本具有逐利性，形成“多元种植”的结构模式。……