顾桐菲　游翰霖　廉振宇　董晓阳

摘 要：当前，区域创新发展管理复杂性快速上升，基于数据分析的决策支撑需求日益迫切，构建多源数据融合的区域创新发展态势评估系统已成为推动创新治理数字化转型、科学化决策的技术基础。为解决实际问题，首先，根据区域创新发展概念特征和评估目标，梳理态势评估系统“多源基础数据管理”、“数据分析与可视化展示”、“治理决策支撑”三大核心需求;其次，按“数据采集-数据管理-数据分析-数据可视化”支撑决策一般性数据挖掘工作流程，设计了区域创新发展态势评估系统功能架构;再次，着眼各类区域创新发展态势评估任务，介绍了系統包含的评估指标体系、指标数据聚合算法、发展趋势预测算法以及政策影响评估方法等实用模型;最后，阐述了态势评估系统软件设计概念架构，展示了系统软件的评估应用实例。本文提出的发展态势评估系统设计框架是推动数据驱动区域创新治理的有益尝试，后续的系统完善和应用研究有助于推动形成“数据积累—模型优化—系统完善—支撑决策”的良性循环。

关 键 词：区域创新;发展态势评估;多源数据融合;系统设计概念架构

DOI：10.16315/j.stm.2021.06.004

中图分类号： C939

文献标志码： A

Design and application of development situation assessment system for

regional innovation based on multi-source data fusion

GU Tong-fei， YOU Han-lin， LIAN Zhen-yu， DONG Xiao-yang

（Consulting Center for Strategic Assessment， Academy of Military Science， Beijing 100091， China）

Abstract：Nowadays， the complexity of management is rocketing for regional innovation， and demand for decision support based on data analysis is becoming increasingly urgent. Hence， it has been considered as a technical basis for promoting the digital transformation of innovation governance that designing and developing an effective and efficient development situation assessment system for regional innovation based on multi-source data fusion. Consequently， the authors propose 4 main works focusing on the topic in this paper. Firstly， we analyze three core requirements of the development situation assessment system based on the conceptual characteristics and assessment objectives， such as multi-source basic data management， data analysis and visualization， and supporting the governance decision-making. Secondly， according to the general data-mining workflow for decision-supporting， called as ‘data collection-data management-data analysis-data visualization， we design the operational framework of assessment system. Thirdly， it is introduced that the practical tools and approaches for various assessment tasks which are embedded in the system， such as assessment index system， index value aggregation algorithm， development trend forecast method and policy impact assessment model. Finally， we demonstrate the design conceptual architecture and an assessment application case of the mentioned software system. The proposed design framework of development situation assessment system can be considered as a rewarding attempt to promote the data-driven government of regional innovation. Furthermore， the follow-up software system updating and related application research are conducive to create a virtuous circle that “data accumulation-model enhancement-software system updating-decision supporting”.572BD1D9-CF2D-4DE5-9C2A-EEF9CB69BCE3

Keywords：regional innovation; development situation assessment; multi-source data fusion; conceptual architecture of system design

从我国公共政策管理实践来看，传统管理模式中存在的封闭单向、粗放定性、反馈迟滞等问题，已经难以适应现代化治理需要[1]。以精细化管理理念为先导，运用多源数据分析方法支撑公共政策管理决策，可以有效弥补上述问题[2]。……