张家峰 李佳楠 周洁 陈红喜

摘 要：颠覆性技术产业在促进我国经济发展，推动传统制造业向智能、绿色、服务型制造转型升级中扮演着至关重要的角色。为此，文中基于生态系统视角，将颠覆性技术产业与生态系统理论相结合。短期演化方面，将颠覆性技术产业划分为4个阶段，并呈现出每个阶段的不同特征;长期演化方面，通过运用Logistic演化方程和复合Logistic演化机制方程对颠覆性技术产业动态周期性演化机理进行研究，发现在一定周期内颠覆性技术产业有着不同演化上限值。结果表明：在颠覆性技术产业演化至饱和值时，要及时识别，并采取有效措施，确保颠覆性技术产业演化可持续。揭示了颠覆性技术产业生态系统演化机理，这对促进我国颠覆性技术产业的发展具有现实指导价值。关键词：颠覆性技术产业;生态系统;复合Logistic;演化机理;短期演化;长期演化

中图分类号：F 426

Abstract：Disruptive technology industries play a vital role in promoting Chinas economic development and accelerating the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing to smart，green，and serviceoriented manufacturing.Therefore，based on the perspective of ecosystems，this paper combines disruptive technology industries with ecosystem theory.In terms of shortterm evolution，the disruptive technology industry is divided into four stages，and each stage has different characteristics.In terms of of longterm evolution，the dynamic periodic evolution mechanism of disruptive technology industries is studied by using Logistic evolution equation and compound Logistic evolution mechanism equation.It is found that disruptive technology industries have different evolutionary upper limits within a certain cycle.The results show that：when the disruptive technology industry evolves to a saturation value，timely identification and effective measures should be taken to ensure the sustainable evolution of the disruptive technology industry，which reveals the evolutionary mechanism of disruptive technology industry ecosystem，and has practical guiding value for promoting the development of my countrys disruptive technology industry.

Key words：disruptive technology industries;ecosystem;compound logistic;evolutionary mechanism;shortterm evolution;longterm evolution

0 引言

顛覆性技术作为产业快速变革的核心驱动力，已成为我国创新发展的重点。习近平总书记在党的十九大报告中提到“突出关键共性技术、前沿引领技术、现代工程技术、颠覆性技术创新……”，其中颠覆性技术受到国家和企业的高度关注，重要原因是它容易造成技术突袭，改变游戏规则，为实现弯道超车带来机遇。“颠覆性技术”是指对已有传统或主流技术途径产生颠覆性效果的技术（CHRISTENSEN，2015）[1]，是由美国哈佛商学院CHRISTENSEN[2]（2013）教授针对商业创新领域提出的概念。鲍萌萌[3]（2019）提到颠覆性技术产业创新不仅依赖于自身技术变革，还依赖于所处的创新生态系统环境。