马于凡 高桂英 樊新刚

摘   要： 欠发达地区的可持续发展问题较为突出，而宁夏南部山区地处我国黄土高原向干旱风沙区的过渡地带，生态脆弱，发展与生态保护间的张力长期存在。对其可持续发展能力进行评估，可以为欠发达地区决策者提供参考。选取宁南山区在能源消耗、环境污染、劳动力和资金、经济发展、社会事业与人民生活、人口发展等6个方面指标，利用主成分分析法，计算出每个指标的综合得分，运用DEA方法评估其可持续发展能力。结果显示欠发达地区政府投入应与地方可持续发展能力相适应，不能急于求成。

关键词： 可持续发展能力; 主成分分析法; 数据包络分析法; 宁南山区

中图分类号： D082               文献标识码：  A             DOI：10.13411/j.cnki.sxsx.2021.01.021

Abstract： The problem of sustainable development in less developed areas is more prominent， while the southern mountain area of Ningxia is located in the transition zone from the Loess Plateau to the arid and sandy area in China， with fragile ecology and long-term tension between development and ecological protection. Therefore， this study takes the southern mountain area of Ningxia as an example to evaluate its sustainable development capacity， in order to provide reference for policy makers in underdeveloped areas. Taking Ningnan Mountain Area as the research object， this paper selects six indexes of energy consumption， environmental pollution， labor and capital， economic development， social development， peoples life and population development in Ningnan Mountain Area from 2010 to 2017， calculates the comprehensive score of each index by principal component analysis， and evaluates its sustainable development ability by DEA method. The results show that Ningnan Mountain area has good sustainable development ability in most years， and three years are ineffective years of DEA， which may be caused by a certain degree of input redundancy caused by the implementation of policies. Therefore， Government investment in less developed regions should be adapted to local sustainable development capacity and should neither act too hastily.

Key words： sustainable development capacity; principal component analysis; data envelopment analysis; Ningnan Mountain Area

一、引言

区域可持续发展是我国发展的必由之路，欠发达地区在可持续发展方面要走的路还很长，对其可持续发展能力进行评估是发展过程中的重要参考。《宁夏回族自治区主体功能区规划》（2014年）西吉、隆德、泾原、彭阳、海原等五县被划分为限制开发生态区，减少水土流失、保障自身生态功能，适当发展与环境相适应的工业是该区域的主要发展目标。原州区被划为重点开发区，目前也面临人口超负荷、生态脆弱、经济滞后的问题[1]。因此，统筹人口、生态、经济协调发展是宁南山区中长期的重要使命。笔者对可持续发展能力进行定量评估，以期为地区发展政策制定和实施提供参考。科学全面的评价指标和客观可靠的方法是提高可持续发展能力的关键。……