陈建华

摘   要： 事物的内部矛盾决定了事物发展的规律。未来中美关系的主要矛盾是美国技术输出的弱化与中国产业升级之间的矛盾，决定了未来中美关系的性质与发展趋势。美国想定战略主导着未来中美关系的结构，是矛盾的主要方面。美国想定战略的失效既取决于中国包容性地重建中美关系的能力，也取决于美国人民对美国社会发展失衡的正确认识，及其能够对美国政局努力纠正发展失衡所施加的足够影响力也在一定程度上影响未来中美关系。美国人民需要重新思考认识美国现有的霸权思维对中美关系以及全球社会经济发展的负面影响，及时消除霸权思维，调整对外关系。美国人民正在经历着新型冠状病毒大爆发与无可避免地陷入经济危机的双重考验。美国人民的选择将成为决定美国能否顺利度过“双重危机”的关键因素，否则未来中美关系会存在极大的不确定性，并因美国塑造的冷战思维使全球陷入动荡状态。

关键词： 未来; 中美关系; 主要矛盾; 美国人民

中图分类号： D81               文献标识码：  A             DOI：10.13411/j.cnki.sxsx.2021.01.006

Abstract： The internal contradictions of things determine the law of the development of things. The main contradiction between China and the United States in the future lies in the contradiction between the weakening of American technology output and the upgrading of Chinese industry， which determines the nature and development trend of China-U.S. relations in the future. The U.S. strategy dominates the structure of China-U.S. relations in the future and is also the main aspect of the conflict. The failure of the U.S. strategy depends not only on Chinas ability to rebuild Sino-US  but American correct understanding of imbalanced social development . The American people need to rethink and recognize the negative impact of the existing hegemonic thinking of the United States on China US relations and global social and economic development， eliminate the hegemonic thinking in time， and adjust foreign international relations. The American people are expiring double tests of  novel coronavirus outbreak and inevitable trials of economic crisis. The choice of the American people will be the key factor to determine whether the United States can successfully survive the “double crisis”. Otherwise， there will be great uncertainty in the future of China-U.S. relations， and the world will be in a turbulent state because of the Cold War mentality shaped by the United States.

Key words： future; China-US relations; major contradiction; American people

一、前言

當前，中美关系因为美国政府对中国政策的多变性已经进入了新的阶段。美中作为世界上第一大经济体和第二大经济体，中美关系已经成为影响全球国际关系、社会经济发展和国际安全的决定性力量，未来中美关系向何处发展必然受到全球关注。美国期望的按照美国意愿塑造的中国政治经济体制并未如愿以偿。……