林慧 王玉斌

摘要：为了提高农民的非农收入，解决“三农”的核心问题，运用VAR（向量自回归）模型，实证探究了黑龙江省农业机械化与农民非农收入之间的互动关系。研究结果表明：黑龙江省农业机械化与农民非农收入互为格兰杰因果，黑龙江省农业机械化的发展对非农收入的增加有着较为稳定的促进作用，但短期来看存在一定的滞后性；而非农收入的增加会较为强烈地抑制农业机械化的发展，两者尚未形成良性的相互促进的互动关系。鉴于此，研究提出依靠科技进步带动黑龙江省农业机械化发展，通过完善农业合作组织提升农业机械服务保障水平，加强农机技能培训发挥农业机械利用效率，拓宽农民的非农就业渠道增加农民的非农收入等方面的建议，以期促进黑龙江省农业机械化和非农收入之间形成互相促进的良性互动关系。

关键词：农业机械化；非农收入；VAR模型；互动關系

中图分类号：F304.6文献标志码：A论文编号：cjas2021-0107

The Interaction Between Agricultural Mechanization and Farmers’Non- Agricultural Income in Heilongjiang Province： An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

Lin Hui， Wang Yubin

（College of Economics and Management， China Agricultural University， Beijing100083）

Abstract： To improve farmers’non- agricultural income， solve the core problems of the Sannong issue（namely， agriculture， rural community and farmers）， this paper uses VAR （vector auto regression） model to empirically explore the interaction between agricultural mechanization and farmers’off- farm income in Heilongjiang Province. The results show that agricultural mechanization and farmers’non-agricultural income in Heilongjiang Province are Granger causality. In addition， the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province has a relatively stable promoting effect on the increase of non-agricultural income， but there is a certain lag in the short term. The increase of non- agricultural income will strongly inhibit the development of agricultural mechanization， and it has not yet formed a benign interactive relationship of mutual promotion. In view of this， in order to promote the formation of a benign interactive relationship between agricultural mechanization and non- agricultural income in the province， the study puts forward some suggestions on relying on scientific and technological progress to drive the development of agricultural mechanization， upgrading the service guarantee level of agricultural machinery by improving agricultural cooperation organizations， strengthening the training of agricultural machinery skills， giving full play to the utilization efficiency of agricultural machinery， broadening farmers’non-agricultural employment channels and increasing farmers’non-agricultural income.

Keywords： Agricultural Mechanization； Non-agricultural Income； VAR Model； Interaction

0引言

中国目前已全面完成脱贫攻坚任务，“三农”问题既是全面建成小康社会必须要面对的重点和难点问题，也是中国经济稳定健康发展以及全面小康社会建成后相对贫困问题要解决的关键。农民收入问题是三农问题的基本点[1]，破解三农问题的关键就是要想方设法提高农民的非农收入[2]。

黑龙江省作为经济发展相对落后的农业大省和重要的商品粮基地，农民人均可支配收入虽保持上升趋势，但就其结构来看，农业经营性收入始终占据最大比重，非农收入所占比重较小。……