张翠英 吕令华 樊献政 李瑞英

摘要：為探讨油用牡丹种子成熟采摘期受气象条件影响的变化规律，依据菏泽市2008—2019年油用牡丹物候观测资料和生育期间气温、光照及降水量等气象要素，利用Microsoft Office Excel 2013、DPS统计软件，采取相关分析、回归分析、滑动平均等数理统计方法，分析了气象条件对油用牡丹生长及种子成熟期的影响。结果表明：油用牡丹花期年变化趋势和种子采摘始期年变化趋势基本一致，个别年份因出现特别的气候异常除外；影响种子采摘始期的气象因子主要是温度，包括平均气温、积温、最高最低日较差等，相关性达显著性检验。光照、湿度、降水等与种子采摘始期相关不显著，但这些气象因子对牡丹生长的影响不容忽视；选取相关显著的气象因子，采用回归方法，建立了油用牡丹种子采摘始期预报模型，分别于7月11日、7月21日制作并发布种子采摘始期预报。模型历史回代，并对2019、2020年进行预报检验（允许误差均在±1天），准确率均为100%，拟合和试报效果较为理想，研究结果可为花农适时采摘优质牡丹种子提供科学参考依据。

关键词：油用牡丹；种子采摘；始期；预报模型；气象条件；影响；变化规律

中图分类号：P49文献标志码：A论文编号：cjas2020-0184

The Prediction Model of Seed Picking Initial Period of Oil Tree Peony

Zhang Cuiying1， Lv Linghua2， Fan Xianzheng3， Li Ruiying1（1Heze Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province， Heze 274000， Shandong， China； 2Heze Academy of Agricultural Sciences of Shandong Province， Heze 274000， Shandong， China；3Zhaoyuan Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province， Zhaoyuan 265400， Shandong， China）

Abstract： To explore the variation law of oil peony seed ripening and picking period affected by meteorological condition， based on the phenological observation data of oil tree peony from 2008 to 2019 and the meteorological elements such as temperature， light and precipitation during the growth period， Microsoft Office Excel 2013 and DPS statistical software were used to analyze the effects of meteorological conditions on the growth and seed maturity of oil tree peony by means of correlation analysis， regression analysis and moving average. The results showed that： the annual change trend of oil tree peony flowering period was basically the same as that of the beginning of seed picking， except some special climatic anomalies in some years； the meteorological factors that affecting the beginning of seed picking were temperature， including average temperature， accumulated temperature， maximum and minimum daily difference， and the correlation reached significant test. Light， humidity， precipitation and other meteorological factors had no significant correlation with the beginning of seed picking， but the influence of these meteorological factors on the growth of peony could not be ignored. Selecting the relevant significant meteorological factors and using regression method， the prediction model of oil peony seed picking initial period was established， and the seed picking beginning forecast was made and released on July 11 and July 21， respectively. The accuracy of the model was 100%， and the fitting and test results were ideal. The research results could provide scientific reference for flower growers to timely pick high-quality peony seeds.

Keywords： Oil Tree Peony； Seed Picking； Initial Period； Forecast Model； Meteorological Condition； Influence； Change Law

0引言

牡丹（Paeonia suffruticosa Andr）为芍药科芍药属牡丹组落叶小灌木，在中国各地已有1500多年的园艺栽培历史[1-2]，是一种传统的观赏和药用植物，结实力强、果荚大、结籽多且籽粒饱满，产量稳定、生长快、适应性广[3]。文献记载种植五年牡丹产量是大豆的2～3倍，含油率22%以上，高于大豆的19%，牡丹籽油不饱和脂肪酸更是达到92%。……