奚永

摘 要：随着经济的发展，电子信息技术的进步，跨境电商凭借互联网，正在迸发出强大的发展潜力，利用信息通信技术以及互联网平台，让互联网与传统行业进行深度融合，充分发挥互联网在社会资源配置中的优化和集成作用，形成更广泛的以互联网为基础设施和实现工具的经济发展新形态。运用VAR模型的方法，研究跨境电商、互联网发展现状与问题，以及互联网普及度在跨境电商中的作用及效果，根据实证研究可知，中国互联网普及率和跨境电商交易额存在稳定的协整关系，而且对跨境电商具有一定的冲击与积极带动作用，同时互联网普及率也是跨境电商交易额的格兰杰原因。结果表明：互联网普及率的提高促进了跨境电商交易额的增加，中国互联网普及率每增加一个单位，引起跨境电商增加0.008 662个单位。

关键词：跨境电商;互联网普及度;VAR模型;融合发展;现状及对策

中图分类号：F 724.6

文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7312（2020）04-0419-06

Abstract：Along with the development of the economy and the progress of electronic information technology，the cross-border electrical business on the Internet is demonstrating strong growth potential.The use of information communication technology and the Internet platform，the in-depth integration of Internet and traditional industries give full play to the Internet in the allocation of social resources optimization and integration effect，forming a new economic development pattern that uses the Internet as an infrastructure and implementation tool.Using the method of VAR model，this paper studies the current situation and problems of cross-border e-commerce and Internet development，and the role and effect of Internet penetration in the cross-border e-commerce law.The empirical study shows that there is a stable co-integration relationship between Chinas Internet penetration rate and cross-border e-commerce transaction volume，and it has a certain impact and positive impact on cross-border e-commerce.Internet penetration rate is also a Granger reason for cross-border e-commerce transaction volume.The results show that the increase of Internet penetration rate promotes the increase of cross-border e-commerce transaction volume.For every unit increase of Internet penetration rate in China，the increase of cross-border e-commerce is 0.008 662 units.

Key words：cross-border e-commerce;internet popularity;VAR model;integrated development;current situation and countermeasures

0 引言

當前，互联网+、跨境电商、网络零售多元化发展，平台经济不断取得发展。平台经济是以技术创新为驱动，互联网平台为支撑，致力于跨产业融合创新的一种新型经济模式。“互联网+外贸”催生了跨境电商的发展，促使交易平台逐渐垂直化、移动化、透明化。传统产业链面临数字化转型和智能化变革，由此衍生的互联网经济产生了巨大的市场空间。跨境电商正在成为促进中外贸易互利共赢的重要推动力，不仅如此，中国“互联网+”战略也得到了广泛的实际应用。……