摘 要：研发投资平滑是企业为规避调整成本，动用流动性资源储备为研发投资提供补充性资金支持，实现研发投资跨期平稳的策略性行为。在不确定性凸显背景下，探索货币政策不确定性对企业研发投资平滑行为的影响具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。利用2010—2017年沪深两市A股上市公司数据，探讨了货币政策不确定性对研发投资平滑行为的影响以及企业异质性条件下这种影响效应的差异。研究发现：货币政策不确定性对研发投资平滑行为具有显著负向影响;进一步研究发现，与国有企业与大规模企业相比，货币政策不确定性与研发投资平滑行为负相关关系在非国有企业与小规模企业中表现得更为明显。文章为宏观经济政策与微观企业行为互动研究提供了新视角，丰富了研发投资平滑影响因素研究。

关键词：货币政策;不确定性;调整成本;研发投资平滑;异质性

中图分类号：F 275

文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7312（2020）04-0401-06

Abstract：Innovation investment smoothing is a strategic behavior，which uses liquidity resource reserves to provide supplementary funding support for innovation investment so as to avoid adjustment costs and achieve smoothing path of multi-periods innovation investment.Facing heightened environment uncertainty，it is of great significance to explore the relationship between monetary policy uncertainty and firms innovation investment smoothing.Using the data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2010—2017，this paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the innovation investment smoothing behavior and different influence under the condition of firms heterogeneity.The results show that Heightened monetary policy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on the innovation investment smoothing behavior.Furthermore，compared with state-owned enterprises and large-scale enterprises，the negative correlation between the monetary policy uncertainty and innovation investment smoothing behavior is stronger in non-state-owned enterprises and small-scale enterprises.The article provides a new perspective for the literature of the interaction between macroeconomic policies and micro-firm behaviors，and enriches the mechanism of innovation investment smoothing behavior.

Key words：monetary policy;uncertainty;adjustment cost;innovation investment smoothing;heterogeneity

0 引言

當前，经济不确定性成为理论界与实务届关注的焦点问题。一方面，英国脱欧、中美贸易摩擦、新型冠状病毒疫情等黑天鹅事件频发，对经济运行形成较大冲击;另一方面，中国改革已步入攻坚期和深水区，何时改、如何改尚存较大变数。面对上升的经济不确定性，基于相机抉择的宏观经济政策也面临高度不确定性。同时，中国仍处经济转轨期，政府对经济资源依然保有较强的支配权和裁量权，进一步放大了经济政策不确定性对微观主体的影响力。……