张鹏 刘雅晴 熊炳辉 赵光辉 蓝波妙 林金秀 陈朝文 庄卫东

摘要  采用自然沉降法对一家企业接种箱进行杂菌含量测定，利用回归分析法对环境中杂菌含量和污染率进行线性回归、二次曲线回归、三次曲线回归，并对得到的回归模型进行检验，研究金针菇菌包污染率随接种环境中杂菌含量变化的规律。结果表明，3种模型的P值均小于0.01，說明3种模型均可以很好地反映环境中杂菌含量与污染率的关系，三次曲线模型的R2adj值最大（0.997），接近1，且各回归系数达显著水平，因此三次曲线模型最适合表征环境中杂菌含量与污染率的关系，回归方程为Y=0.203-0.489x+0.293x2-0.014x3。

关键词  回归分析法;污染率;线性回归;二次曲线;三次曲线

中图分类号  S  646.1+5文献标识码  A

文章编号  0517-6611（2020）04-0046-03

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2020.04.014

开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Curve Fitting Analysis of Dynamics between Microbes Content and Contamination Rate during Flammulina velutipes Inoculating

ZHANG Peng1，LIU Ya-qing2，XIONG Bing-hui3  et al  （1.Quanzhou Institute of Agricultural and Sciences，Quanzhou，Fujian 362212;2.Quanzhou Normal University，Quanzhou，Fujian 362046;3.Fujian Yuxing Agricultural Science and Technology Co.Ltd.，Quanzhou，Fujian 362212）

Abstract  In this paper， the law of variation of other microbes content in inoculated environment versus contamination rate of fungi bag has been studied.In order to achieve the objective of this study， natural sediment method was applied to measure other microbes content in inoculation box of one enterprise.Through regression analysis which contain linear，quadric cure and cubic cure on the date of other microbes content in inoculation box and contamination rate， the mathematical model was constructed， and then a statistical test was put to the model.The results showed that the P value of the three models were less than 0.01， all of the model well reflected the relationship between other microbes content and contamination rate， the R2adj of cubic model was maximal（0.997） and regression coefficient were distinctness by T testing， therefore， the cubic model can accurately predict the change of the contamination rate according to other microbes content， regression equation was Y=0.203-0.489x+0.293x2-0.014x3.

Key words  Regression analysis method;Contamination rate;Linear regression;Quadric curve;Cubic curve

金针菇（Flammulina velutipes）又名金菇、构菌、毛柄金钱菌，隶属于伞菌目（Agaricales）白蘑科（Tricholomataceae）小火焰菌属（Flammulina）[1-2]，其营养丰富，深受市场欢迎，是我国最早进行人工[3-5]栽培的食用菌之一，我国食用菌协会统计显示，2017年我国金针菇产量达247.92万t。目前我国金针菇主产区福建、江苏等地已实现了工厂化栽培，对于生产企业而言，污染率是决定企业经济效益的重要因素之一，在工厂化栽培过程中，各个操作空间及环境的洁净度与菌包的污染率呈显著正相关，为了减少污染发生，接种室、培养车间的杂菌需要控制在一定的范围内，目前许多金针菇生产企业尤其是袋栽模式的企业仍采用传统的接种箱接种，接种箱内的洁净度直接关系到接种的成功率，做好接种箱的消毒及空间杂菌监测极为重要。……