赵晚晴 赵轶龙 叶海波 赵剑缘

摘 要： 采用系统耦合作用机理作为分析滑雪旅游业、生态环境和城镇化互动发展的理论基础，通过构建各子系统评价指标体系，引入综合评价模型和耦合协调模型，探寻河北、新疆、黑龙江、吉林、辽宁5省区省份滑雪旅游业、生态环境和城镇化耦合协调发展关系及趋势。研究结果表明：滑雪旅游业—生态环境—城镇化系统呈现高耦合低协调的发展特征，系统整体耦合协调发展水平有所提升，呈现“磨合—协调”的协调发展演进态势，整体耦合协调发展类型为“勉强协调—城镇化滞后”型；子系统间存在紧密的互动性，发展水平差异性与一致性共存；其中，滑雪旅游系统的综合发展具有易波动性，生态环境发展与系统耦合协调显著相关，而城镇化发展滞后的状态将成为困扰系统发展的现实因素。

关键词： 滑雪旅游业；生态环境；城镇化；耦合协调模型

中图分类号：G80-052   文献标识码：A  文章编号：1006-2076（2023）02-0001-11

Coordinated Development of Ski Tourism， Ecological Environment and Urbanization： An Empirical Study based on Coupling Coordination Model

ZHAO Wanqing 1，ZHAO Yilong 2，YE Haibo 1，3，ZHAO Jianyuan 1

1.Sport Business School，Beijing Sport University，Beijing 100084，China;2.China Institute of Sport Science， Beijing 100061，China;3. Institute of Sport Humanistic and Society，Harbin University of Sport，Harbin 150008，Heilongjiang，China

Abstract： The system coupling mechanism is adopted as the theoretical basis to analyze the interactive development of ski tourism， ecological environment and urbanization， the coupling and coordinated development relationship and trend of ski tourism， ecological environment and urbanization in Hebei， Xinjiang， Heilongjiang， Jilin and Liaoning are explored by constructing evaluation index system of each subsystem， introducing comprehensive evaluation model and coupling coordination model. The results show that the development of ski tourism-ecological environment-urbanization system is characterized by high coupling and low coordination. The overall coupling and coordinated development level of the system has been improved，showing the trend of "running-coordination" coordinated development evolution， the overall coupling coordinated development type is "barely coordinated - urbanization lag" type. There is close interaction among subsystems， and the development level is different and consistent. Among them， the comprehensive development of ski tourism system is volatile， the development of ecological environment is significantly related to the coupling coordination of the system， and the lagging state of urbanization development will become a realistic factor that bothers the development of the system.

Key words： ski tourism; ecological environment; urbanization; coupled coordination model

黨的十八大以来，党中央、国务院和各部门出台了一系列政策措施推进滑雪旅游的发展。2016年，国务院颁布的《“十三五”旅游业发展规划》，将冰雪旅游作为发展的重点项目；同年出台的《国务院办公厅关于加快发展健身休闲产业的指导意见》提出，以冬奥会为契机，围绕“三亿人上冰雪”目标，全面发展冰雪产业。体育总局等四部门印发的《冰雪运动发展规划（2016—2025 年）》指出，2025年我国冰雪产业总规模将达到1万亿元，据联合国世界旅游组织测算，2021—2022年冰雪季我国冰雪旅游将带动冰雪特色小镇、冰雪文创、冰雪运动、度假地产等相关产业的产值将达到2.92万亿元。……