刘辉 范林榜 吕墨子

摘  要：物流业的发展对经济、环境和能源有重大的影响，因此中国若要实现经济内循环和高质量发展必须重视物流业发展。文章基于2010～2019年中国31个省的面板数据，运用PVAR模型对物流业与能源、环境和经济之间关系进行实证研究。研究表明：（1）中国不同地区的物流业发展是不均衡的。“明星”象限的沿河流域，物流业发展潜力较高，经济增长动力也较高;“金牛”象限的沿海地区，物流业发展潜力较低，但经济增长动力较高;“问题”象限的东北地区，物流业发展潜力较高，但经济增长动力较低;“瘦狗”象限的西部地区，物流业发展潜力较低，经济增长动力也较低。（2）能源消耗与物流需求为双向影响效应;经济发展是导致物流业发展的原因;物流业发展与物流需求为双向影响效应。最后，对中国物流业如何高質量发展给出一些意见和建议。

关键词：PVAR;经济内循环;物流产业;高质量发展

中图分类号：F250    文献标识码：A

Abstract： The development of the logistics industry has a significant impact on the economy， environment and energy， so China must pay attention to the development of the logistics industry if it wants to realize the internal circulation of the economy and high-quality development. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019， this paper uses the PVAR model to conduct an empirical study on the relationship between the development of China's logistics industry and energy， environment and economy. The research shows that：（1）The development of logistics industry in different regions of China is not balanced. Along the river basin in the“star”quadrant， the development potential of logistics industry is high， and the economic growth power is also high. In the coastal areas in the“jinniu”quadrant， the development potential of logistics industry is low， but the economic growth power is high. In the“problem”quadrant of Northeast China， the development potential of logistics industry is high， but the impetus of economic growth is low. In the western part of the“thin dog”quadrant， the development potential of the logistics industry is low， and the impetus for economic growth is also low.（2）Energy consumption and logistics demand is a two-way effect; economic development is the cause of the development of logistics industry; logistics industry development and logistics demand for a two-way effect. Finally， this paper gives some opinions and suggestions on how to develop Chinese logistics industry with high quality.

Key words： PVAR; internal circulation of economy; logistics industry; high quality development

随着全球新冠肺炎疫情进一步蔓延的影响，全球经济受到前所未有的巨大冲击，中美贸易摩擦不断升级，自疫情以来中国国内失业人口也在持续增加，2020年1～3季度中国国民生产总值比上年同期增长仅为0.7%。中国的经济发展受到严重的冲击。中国作为制造业大国，当前正处于经济绿色转型升级的关键时期，中国的制造业面临能源消耗与环境保护的双重压力。同时，中国的经济发展要想实现经济内循环，通过国内消费拉动经济增长就必须重视物流业的发展，因为物流业发展程度对企业的降本增效有显著的影响。……