袁鹏程 李鹏程 王世佳

摘  要：众多研究表明“感知竞争”和“过去行为”对当前决策具有顯著影响。文章在在经典计划行为理论的基础上，扩展“感知竞争”和“过去行为”两个潜变量，构建结构方程模型，进行公交及小汽车两种出行方式的选择意向研究。结果表明：基于扩展计划行为理论（ETPB）所建立的两个结构方程模型拟合效果均较好，能够很好地刻画居民的方式选择过程;行为态度和感知行为控制均对行为意向有显著的正向作用，而主观规范仅在公交模型中显著，对小汽车选择意向没有显著影响;对于两个扩展变量，感知竞争负向作用于行为意向，并且小汽车比公交有更大的竞争力，而过去行为对行为意向有显著的正向影响，对公交选择意向的作用已超过原始的三个变量。

关键词：ETPB理论;结构方程模型;方式选择意向;感知竞争;过去行为

中图分类号：U491     文献标识码：A

Abstract： On the basis of the theory of planned behavior， two latent variables， perceived competition and past behavior， were extended to construct the structural equation model， and the study on the choice intention of bus and car was carried out. The results show that the two structural equation models based on the extended planned behavior theory have good fitting effects and can describe the mode selection process of residents well. Among the original variables， behavioral attitude and perceived behavioral control have significant positive effects on behavioral intention， while the subjective norm only has significant effect in the bus model and has no significant effect on the car selection intention. For the two extended variables， perceived competition negatively affects behavioral intention， and cars are more competitive than buses. However， the past behavior has a significant positive effect on the behavioral intention， and the effect on the bus choice intention has exceeded the original three variables.

Key words： extended theory of planned behavior; structural equation model; mode choice intention; perceived competition; past behavior

0  引  言

基于效用最大化的离散选择模型考虑了出行者个人及家庭社会经济属性、出行属性等对方式选择的影响，被广泛应用于出行选择行为研究中[1]。但离散选择模型中考虑的因素都为可直接观测的变量，忽略了对感知、态度、偏好等心理潜变量因素的考虑。近年来，潜变量因素逐渐受到关注，研究者们开始从心理潜变量层面去研究居民的方式选择行为[2]。许多社会心理学理论特别是计划行为理论（Theory of Planned Behavior，TPB）被广泛应用于刻画居民的选择行为，产生了大量的实证研究[3-5]。陈坚选……