陈俐 方叶祥 甘平

摘  要：由于突发事件的不确定性，制造商往往会面临缺货的风险，为了减少缺货损失和提高服务水平，制造商采取外協策略以应对紧急缺货。从制造商的年需求满足度出发，在同类企业相互协作的背景下构建制造商库存决策的成本

—弹性模型，研究制造商最优库存决策。采用精英策略的非支配排序的Nsga-Ⅱ遗传算法和数值仿真得出制造商外协策略成本—弹性模型的最优库存决策，并对模型中的参数进行了分析。研究结果表明，为保证总成本最小，当信息误差率较低时，应适当减少初始期初库存，为降低信息共享误差率，可建立信息共享平台，使供需双方信息透明化;当需求越不稳定时，更需要加强制造商间的协作，建立长期合作框架协议，以便共同抵御突发事件的影响。

关键词：突发事件;外协;需求满足度;弹性

中图分类号：F253    文献标识码：A

Abstract： Due to the uncertainty of emergencies， manufacturers often face the risk of stock shortage. In order to reduce the loss of stock shortage and improve the service level， manufacturers adopt outsourcing strategies to deal with emergency stock shortage. Based on the annual demand satisfaction of the manufacturer， the cost-elasticity model of the inventory decision of the manufacturer is constructed under the background of the cooperation of similar enterprises， and the optimal inventory decision of the manufacturer is studied. The elite strategy of non-dominated sorting the Nsga-Ⅱ genetic algorithm and numerical simulation that manufacturers outsourcing strategy cost-elastic model of optimal inventory decisions， and analyses the parameters in the model. The results show that，in order to minimize the total cost， when the error rate of information is low， the initial inventory should be appropriately reduced. In order to reduce the error rate of information sharing， an information sharing platform can be established to make the information of the supply and demand parties transparent. When the demand is more unstable， it is more necessary to strengthen the cooperation between manufacturers and establish a long-term cooperation framework agreement， so as to jointly resist the arrival of emergencies.

Key words： emergency; outsourcing; degree of demand satisfaction; elasticity

0  引  言

近年来，随着突发事件的频繁发生，企业面临着巨大的考验。突发事件会直接导致供应的中断，并且由于突发事件的持续性影响，如果没有及时应对，那么将会给企业带来巨大的经济损失。因此，突发事件下企业的管理策略越来越受关注。关于预防和应对突发事件的库存管理策略，学者们有所研究：Beamon等[1]从人道主义角度出发，建立随机库存控制模型，研究了长期紧急救援反应的最优订货数量和再订货点;Selda等[2]提出了一种基于飓风预测模型的多周期库存决策;Taskin等[3]提出了一种具有飓风预报更新的贝叶斯决策模型;王芹等[4]运用最优性原理分析了突发事件影响下的最优订货批量、最佳订货周期和最大利润的存在性问题。……