冉文学 谢艮花

摘  要：基于订单信息传递及接收过程的状态转换，构建了基于马尔科夫链的物流订单信息精确有效度计量分析模型，并引入广义信度中的辨识框架概念，运用定量分析方法分析了基于信息动态视角的订单信息各环节的精确有效度，讨论订单信息精确、模糊和滞后三种状态之间的转换概率。最后，通过数值仿真验证了模型的有效性，研究结果表明：在稳态下，订单信息接收处于“精确”状态的概率要远大于处于“模糊”和“延迟”状态的概率，并且订单信息接收过程中每个环节的精确有效度均在0.9以上，说明当前订单信息接收过程中的精确有效度很高。

关键词：订单信息;状态转移;计量分析;马尔科夫链

中图分类号：F253.9    文献标识码：A

Abstract： Based on the state transition of the order information transmission and receiving process， a Markov chain-based measurement analysis model of the accuracy and validity of the logistics order information is constructed， and the concept of identification framework in the generalized reliability is introduced， and the quantitative analysis method is used to analyze the information based on the dynamic perspective. Discuss the accuracy and validity of each link of the order information， discuss the transition probability between the three states of order information accuracy， vagueness and lag. Finally， the validity of the model is verified by numerical simulation. The research results show that in the steady state， the probability of receiving the order information in the“accurate”state is much greater than the probability of being in the“fuzzy”and“delayed”state， and the order information is received the accuracy and validity of each link in the process are above 0.9， indicating that the accuracy and validity of the current order information receiving process is very high.

Key words： order information; state transition; quantitative analysis; Markov chain

0  引  言

云南與边境国家商务合作的快速发展驱使跨境物流成为物流行业研究的焦点问题，再加上我国大力推进现代流通体系的建设，更是加快了跨境物流的研究与发展。“一带一路”的提出给跨境物流带来了前所未有的发展机遇。基于云南省的地理优势，在跨境电商兴起的前提基础上，云南企业大多利用出口业务来增加企业效益，所以跨境物流伴随着一种快速发展的趋势[1]。但正是由于此，给云南省的跨境物流带来了很大的挑战并且存在着较为棘手的问题，其中比较突出的就是跨境电商与跨境物流两者之间互相促进发展问题[2]。

当前国内外学者对于跨境物流的研究已经较为成熟，国内的文献大多是基于“一带一路”倡议提出对跨境物流的研究。……