卿石松 陈滔 程丽跃

摘 要：科学评估生育政策效果，需要合适的指标、标准和参照对象。不同于以往基于宏观指标和政策前后对比的方式，基于生育政策城乡有别的历史背景，借鉴自然实验的方法提出采用城乡对照方式评估生育政策效果的新思路，并综合利用宏观统计数据和2010—2018年中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据进行分析。结果发现，无论是城镇二孩总和生育率或一孩家庭二孩生育比例的上升，还是城乡二孩生育差距的缩小，都印证支持生育政策调整发挥了短期效果。然而，生育政策调整的长期效应不容乐观。城镇家庭生育二孩的比例总体依然较低，且生育意愿存在下行风险。更重要的是，队列比较发现，女性初婚年龄持续推迟，而理想子女数则持续下降，“90后”和“00后”倾向于不生育（理想子女数为0）的比例有所提高。这预示着支撑生育政策长期效果的基础非常薄弱。发挥生育政策潜力，进一步完善相关配套措施，必须深刻认识到新生代女性婚姻和生育观念的变化。

关键词：政策评估;两孩政策;二孩总和生育率;理想子女数;男孩偏好

中图分类号：C924 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-4149（2021）04-0083-13

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2021.00.031

Abstract：To evaluate the effect of China s twochild policy， we need appropriate indicators， standards and reference. Different from the previous methods based on macro indicators and beforeafter comparison， considering the different historical background of fertility policy between urban and rural areas， this paper puts forward a new method of using urbanrural comparison based on the methods of natural experiments， and uses statistical data and China Family Panel Studies （CFPS） data from 2010 to 2018 to evaluate the effect of fertility policy. The results show that whether the total fertility rate of the second child in urban areas or the proportion of the second child in families with one child increases， or the gap of the second child in urban and rural areas narrows， it is proved that the adjustment of fertility policy has played a shortterm effect. However， the longterm effect of the adjustment of the birth policy is not optimistic. The secondbirth rate for urban household registered residence is still relatively low， and there is a downward risk in their fertility intention. What s more， the cohort analysis found that the age of women s first marriage continued to delay， while the proportion of those born in the 1990s and 2000s who prefer not to have children （the ideal number of children is zero） has increased. This indicates that the foundation for the longterm effect of the twochild policy is very weak. In order to optimize the fertility policy and further improve the relevant supporting measures， we must deeply recognize the changes in the attitudes of marriage and childbirth of the new generation of women.

Keywords：policy evaluation;twochild policy;secondbirth rate;ideal number of children;son preference

一、引言

為了促进人口长期均衡发展，2011年后中国开始实施以放松生育控制为核心的双独两孩、单独两孩和全面两孩政策，并落实了三孩生育政策。在此背景下，生育政策的实施效果及相关的生育形势引起社会各界的广泛关注和讨论，普遍流行的言论是政策遇冷或政策失效。……