薛若晗

摘要 运用基于耕地、经济及生态3方面的综合承载力的改进型适度人口模型，计算2015—2019年三明市适度人口规模，并将其与现实人口进行比对分析。结果表明：2015—2019年三明市的耕地承载人口规模虽有所上升，但始终处于超载状态，超载率最高达27.37%。经济承载人口规模呈现富余状态，富余率最高达22.75%，但第二产业承载人口规模占主要地位。生态承载人口规模整体呈现下降趋势，也处于超载状态，超载率最高为90.86%。适度人口规模先上升后下降，始终低于实际人口，超载率最高为23.37%。这说明2015—2019年三明市的经济发展是以牺牲环境和资源为代价，人口、资源与环境处于一种不协调状态。最后，提出了合理对策，以提升三明市的适度人口规模。

关键词 综合承载力;适度人口规模;三明市

中图分类号 X 24  文献标识码 A

文章编号 0517-6611（2021）16-0057-04

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2021.16.016   开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Study on Optimum Population of Sanming City Based on Comprehensive Carrying Capacity

XUE Ruo-han （Ocean College，Minjiang University，Fuzhou，Fujian 350108）

Abstract Using the improved optimum population model based on the comprehensive carrying capacity of cultivated land，economy and ecology，the moderate population scale of Sanming City from 2015 to 2019 was calculated and compared with the actual population.The results show that：the cultivated land carrying population scale of Sanming from 2015 to 2019 had an upward trend，but it was always overloaded，with the highest overload rate of 27.37%.The economic carrying population scale had been in a state of surplus，with the highest surplus rate of 22.75%，but the secondary industry carrying population scale was the main one.The ecological carrying population scale showed a downward trend as a whole，and was also in the state of overload，with the highest overload rate of 90.86%.The optimum population scale first increased and then decreased，which was lower than the actual population，the highest overload rate was 23.37%.It showed that the economic development of Sanming City in 2015-2019 was at the expense of environment and resources.The population，resources and environment of Sanming City were in an uncoordinated state.Finally，some countermeasures were put forward to improve the optimum population scale of Sanming City.

Key words Comprehensive carrying capacity;Optimum population scale;Sanming City

區域适度人口，一般是指某区域在一定目标和条件下，凭借区域内的经济、社会、资源以及技术发展水平，能持续稳定供养的享有一定物质生活水准的最优人口数量[1-3]。因此，区域适度人口规模是取决于区域内的自然资源、经济社会资源和生态资源等要素共同形成的区域综合承载力。综合承载力不但会随着科学技术进步和经济全球化发生变化，而且某些情况下，自然资源、经济资源和生态系统对区域带来的影响可能会相互抵消或加强，区域综合承载力亦可随之改变。对区域适度人口规模的测度和研究大致经历了3个阶段，分别为早期适度人口论、现代适度人口论和可持续生态适度人口论[4]。……