李梦宇 王加敏 吴品儒

摘 要：通过对石河子市1990、2000、2006、2015、2018年Landsat系列遥感影像的处理与解译判读，采用多种数学模型分析石河子市1990—2018年4个阶段各类用地的动态演变情况。以此为基础构建Markov模型，预测未来12年石河子市的土地利用变化情况，同时建立石河子土地利用变化的驱动因素指标体系，通过主成分分析法得出石河子市的主要驱动因素。结果表明：（1）从土地利用结构变化幅度来看，建设用地逐渐增加，耕地和未利用地面积逐年减少，草地以较小的幅度递增，林地先增加后减少，水域先减少后增加。（2）从土地利用动态度上看，土地利用综合动态度在2000—2006年最高，土地利用变化最快。（3）从土地利用程度来看，土地利用多样性指数总体上呈现出先增加后减少的趋势，同时土地利用率逐年上升。（4）在未来的经济发展过程中，前期人们会优先考虑对未利用地的开发利用，将其价值利益最大化;同时大量的耕地也将向建设用地转变。（5）社会经济、农业生产因素是土地利用变化的首要人文驱动因素，人口因素次之。

关键词：土地利用动态变化;驱动因素;马尔科夫模型

中图分类号 F301.24文献标识码 A文章编号 1007-7731（2021）07-0110-07

Dynamic Change and Driving Factors Analysis of Shihezi Land Use Based on Remote Sensing

LI Mengyu1 et al.

（1College of Science， Shihezi University， Shihezi 832000， China）

Abstract： Through the processing and interpretation of Landsat series remote sensing images of Shihezi City in 1990， 2000， 2006， 2015 and 2018， various mathematical models were used to analyse the dynamic evolution of various types of land use in Shihezi City in the four stages from 1990 to 2018. Based on this， a Markov model was constructed to predict the land use changes in Shihezi City in the next 12 years， while a system of indicators for the drivers of land use changes in Shihezi was established， and the main drivers of Shihezi City were derived through principal component analysis. The results showed that： （1） In terms of the magnitude of structural changes in land use， construction land gradually increases， while the area of arable land and unused land decreases year by year; grassland increases in smaller increments; forest land first increases and then decreases; and water area first decreases and then increases. （2） In terms of land use dynamics， the comprehensive land use dynamics was highest from 2000 to 2006， with the fastest change in land use. （3） In terms of the degree of land use， the land use diversity index generally shows a trend of increasing before decreasing， while the land use rate increases year by year. （4）In the future economic development process， people will give priority to the development and use of unused land in the early stage to maximise its value benefits; at the same time a large amount of arable land will also be transformed into land for construction. （5）Socio-economic and agricultural production factors are the primary human drivers of land use change， followed by demographic factors.

Key words： Dynamic change of land use; Driving factors; Markov model

土地是人类赖以生存和发展的重要的资源基础，土地的利用与变化不仅直接影响到社会经济的可持续发展，而且间接影响全球环境变化[1]。随着人类社会的快速发展，人口-资源-环境冲突日益加剧，加之我国人均占地面积少，土壤污染严重等基本情况，土地资源紧缺已经成为制约我国经济发展，影响居民幸福指数的重要原因之一。……