吉梦喆 陶园

摘 要：基于国家统计年鉴数据，分析了我国主要农作物种植结构的变化趋势，结合不同作物的收益情况以及对农民人均可支配收入的影响，对农作物种植趋向及其潜在环境风险进行了分析。结果表明，我国蔬菜、水果的种植面积有增加的趋势;种植蔬菜、水果的现金收益分别达51000元/hm2和54915元/hm2，约为水稻收益的4～5倍，农民人均可支配收入与蔬菜瓜果的播种面积存在一定的线性正相关关系，在经济的驱动下同时考虑种植条件，农民更有意愿种植蔬菜瓜果等经济作物。蔬菜、水果未利用的化肥量分别达到375kg/hm2和600kg/hm2，甚至超过了粮食作物的施肥量，产生的废弃物及秸秆量也不容忽视，其潜在环境风险更高。因此，应推广应用化肥减量及化肥替代技术，加强废弃物及秸秆资源化利用。

关键词：经济驱动;种植结构;粮食作物;蔬菜瓜果;环境风险

中图分类号 F323文献标识码 A文章编号 1007-7731（2021）07-0003-03

Research on the Crop Planting Trend and Its Potential Environmental Risk Driven by Economic

Interests

JI Mengzhe1 et al.

（1China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research， Beijing 100048， China）

Abstract： Based on the statistical data， this paper introduced the planting structure change of major crops in China， and analyzed the crop planting trend and its potential environmental risks by combining with the income of different crops and the impact on the per-capita disposable income of farmers. The results showed that the planting area of vegetables and fruits had an increasing tendency in China; the cash income of planting vegetables and fruits could reach 3，400 yuan and 3，661 yuan per mu， which is about 4-5 times that of rice; there is a positive linear correlation between the per-capita disposable income of farmers and the sown area of vegetables and fruits; driven by economy interests and considering the planting conditions， farmers are more willing to plant vegetables， fruits and other cash crops. The unused fertilizer of each mu of vegetables and fruits could reach 25kg and 40kg， respectively， which is even higher than that of grain crops. The amount of the waste and straw is a problem that cannot be ignored， because the potential environmental risk is higher. The chemical fertilizer decrement and the alternative technology should be implemented to strengthen the resource utilization of waste and straw.

Key words： Economic interest; Planting structure; Grain crop; Vegetables and fruits; Environmental risk

虽然经济社会在不断发展，但农村的进步、农业的发展以及农民的小康问题仍相对滞后，“三农”问题也受到了更多关注[1]。农业要发展、农民要增收，在经济驱动下，作物种植结构也会随之发生改变，在其他条件允许的情况下农民会更趋向于种植收益高的作物。既要实现增收，也要考虑对环境的影响。因此，农民更意愿种植什么作物，其对环境的影响如何，如何应对这些问题等，均值得深入分析。

1 我国农作物种植结构的变化趋势

根据国家统计年鉴数据[2]，从1995年到2017年，我国主要农作物种植结构发生很大变化，与1995年相比，除了药材、蔬菜瓜果的种植有所增加外，其他各类农作物均有所减少（见图1）。……