邓吉祥 刘晓

摘要 基于对农业转移人口市民化的内涵、政策逻辑分析，构建了一个解释长沙市农业转移人口市民化的理论框架。在理性人假设下，长沙市农业转移人口市民化有其普遍性特征，城市集聚能力不断增加，人口总量持续上升。但同时，长沙市农业转移人口市民化也面临人口空间分化明显、农民工总量逐年回落、城市排斥力上升、转移成本压力巨大等个性特征。基于此，提出助推长沙市农业转移人口市民化的三大思路：一是统一思想，清除地方政府制定和执行相关政策的思想桎梏;二是以长沙市争创国家中心城市为契机，从战略上将长沙市农业转移人口市民化问题上升为21世纪湖南发展腾飞的百年大计;三是从战术上切实创新农业人口转移思路，解除农民进城的后顾之忧。

关键词 农业转移人口市民化;时空演变特征;政策优化

中图分类号 F.323.6文献标识码 A

文章编号 0517-6611（2021）02-0263-05

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2021.02.068

开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

The Evolvement Characteristics and Breaking Idea of Rural MigrantsUrbanization in Changsha

DENG Jixiang1，LIU Xiao2 （

1.School of Economics and Management，Changsha University，Changsha，Hunan 410022;2.Institute of Sociology，Hunan Academy of Social Sciences，Changsha，Hunan 410003）

Abstract Based on the analysis of the connotation and policy logic of citizenization of the migrant agricultural population，a theoretical framework is constructed to explain citizenization of the migrant agricultural population in Changsha.Under the assumption of rational person，the citizenization of the migrant agricultural population in Changsha has its universal characteristics.However，at the same time，the citizenization of the migrant agricultural population in Changsha is also confronted with such individual characteristics as obvious spatial differentiation of the population，annual decline of the total number of migrant workers，rising urban repulsive force and huge pressure on transfer cost.Based on this，three ideas are put forward to promote the citizenization of the migrant agricultural population in Changsha.The second is to take Changsha as an opportunity to become a national central city，and to raise the issue of citizenization of the migrant agricultural population in Changsha from a strategic perspective to a centurylong plan for hunans development in the 21st century.Third，we should innovate the way of thinking of agricultural population transfer tactically to solve the problem of peasants entering cities.

Key words Ruralurban migrants urbanization;Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics;Policy optimization

农村人口向城镇转移是人类社会发展的客观趋势，2018年，我国常住人口城镇化率为59.58%，而户籍人口城镇化率为43.37%，这意味着全国还有1.7亿外出农民工及其随迁家属被统计为城镇常住人口，这部分人口在城市生活，但并没有与城市本地居民在经济、行为、心理和身份认同等多重意义上达成深层次的社会融合[1]，由此带来一系列社会问题，受到各级政府的高度关注。2019年《政府工作报告》明确提出，要抓好农业转移人口落户，推动城镇基……