黄由衡 唐岚

摘  要：从物流的“基础性、战略性和先导性”视角，综合分析国家物流枢纽建设对承载城市的经济效应，通过选择全国40个国家物流枢纽承载城市2008～2019年面板数据，在考虑相关控制变量的基础上，采用动态面板数据模型定量测度物流枢纽建设对承载城市经济增长的影响。结果表明：（1）对于承载城市经济发展，物流枢纽建设所起到的推动作用具有动态时间滞后效应;（2）物流枢纽的经济效应在不同时段内是同向且为正向;（3）区域经济越发达，当期物流枢纽经济效应的显著性越低，它对经济增长的影响程度也相对较低;（4）相较东部和中部承载城市，物流枢纽建设对西部承载城市经济发展具有持续性促进作用。

關键词：物流枢纽;承载城市;面板数据;经济效应

中图分类号：F250    文献标识码：A

Abstract： From the perspective of“basic， strategic and leading”of logistics， this paper comprehensively analyzes economic effects on the construction of national logistics hubs in host cities. By selecting the city's panel data in 40 national logistics hub host cities from 2008 to 2019， and taking relevant control variables into account， the dynamic panel data model is used to quantitatively measure the impact of national logistics hubs construction on economic growth of host cities. The research shows that：（1）The construction of logistics hubs have dynamic time lag effects on economic growth of host cities.（2）The construction of logistics hubs have positive economic effects on different time periods.（3）In the more economically developed areas， the less obvious economic effects of logistics hubs in the current period， and the impact of logistics hubs on economic growth is relatively low.（4）Compared with the eastern and central host cities， only the economic development of western host cities has been continuously promoted by the construction of logistics hubs.

Key words： national logistics hubs; host cities; panel data; economic effects

0  引  言

随着国际陆港、中欧班列枢纽节点等快速发展，跨境电商、同城配送等物流新需求持续增长，作为现代物流体系核心基础设施的物流枢纽建设正在不断加大投入，物流枢纽对资源要素的集聚效应和对产业发展的促进作用日益显现。特别是国家发改委2018年发布《国家物流枢纽布局和建设规划》后，物流枢纽建设在支撑和发挥物流业的基础性、战略性和先导性作用方面扮演着越来越重要的角色。物流基础设施对区域经济增长具有重要的正向作用，李晓栋[1]研究发现交通固定资产投入显著地提升了物流产业效率，王新玮[2]通过对两个子时期……