田宝星 宫丽娟 杨帆 陈晶 翟墨 张洋

摘要：為了解1970—2014年黑龙江省自然植被气候生产潜力的分布规律和变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应，利用黑龙江省80个气象站观测数据，结合Miami模型，通过小波分析和EOF分析等方法，对黑龙江省自然植被气候生产潜力的变化特征进行分析。结果表明：1970年以来，气温、降水、蒸散和标准气候生产潜力呈增加趋势，2000—2014年粮食安全存在隐患。标准气候生产潜力（W）与蒸散气候生产潜力年代际变化相近。4种气候生产潜力主周期均为26～31年。W空间分布呈正、负相间。W与气温、降水量和蒸散量呈正相关，气温是主要限制因子。“暖湿型”气候对W有利，生产潜力增加幅度7.41%～ 14.82%。研究结果对优化农业布局，提高农业气候资源利用率以及促进粮食作物稳产高产等有参考价值。

关键词：植被；气候变化；Miami模型；气候生产潜力；黑龙江

中图分类号：P49文献标志码：A论文编号：cjas20190900204

Effect of Climate Change on Climate-induced Potential Productivity of Natural Vegetation in Heilongjiang

Tian Baoxing1，2， Gong Lijuan1，2， Yang Fan3， Chen Jing4， Zhai Mo1，2， Zhang Yang3

（1Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science， Harbin 150030， Heilongjiang， China； 2Innovation and Opening Laboratory of Regional Eco-meteorology in Northeast of China Meteorological Administration， Harbin 150030， Heilongjiang， China；3Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau Office Service Centre， Harbin 150030， Heilongjiang， China；4Bayan Meteorological Bureau， Harbin 151800， Heilongjiang， China）

Abstract： To understand the distribution rule and change trend of climate-induced potential productivity of natural vegetation and its response to climate change in Heilongjiang from 1970 to 2014， the authors used the Miami model， wavelet analysis and EOF to analyze the variation characteristics of the climate- induced potential productivity of natural vegetation based on observation data of 80 meteorological stations. The results showed that： the four types of climate- induced potential productivity （air temperature， precipitation， evapotranspiration and standard climate-induced potential productivity） had increased since 1970， however， there were hidden dangers in food security from 2000 to 2014. The standard climate- induced potential productivity （W） and evapotranspiration climate- induced potential productivity had similar interdecadal variation. The major periodic of the four types of climate-induced potential productivity was 26 to 31 years.The W presented alternate positive and negative variations in space， and it was positively correlated with the air temperature， precipitation， and evapotranspiration， the air temperature was the main restriction factor. Warm-wet climate is beneficial to W， and the potential productivity will increase within a range of 7.41% to 14.82% . The results could provide a basic method for optimizing agricultural distribution， improving the utilization of agricultural climate resources and promoting stable and high yield production of grain crops.

Keywords： Vegetation； Climate Change； Miami Model； Climate-induced Potential Productivity； Heilongjiang

0引言

气候变化是人类面临的最为严重的环境问题之一，气候变暖日益明显，使得地表温度及气温明显高于以往，同时极端天气也给农业生产增加不确定性[1-2]。气候变化已经对人类及自然植被产生了广泛和重要的影响[3]，特别是以农业为主体的粮食安全[4]。气候生产潜力指某地区光温水等因子相互协调，作物合理利用当地气候资源和土壤养分，单位面积产量将达到最大值[5]。探讨自然植被气候生产潜力，体现了气象因子的不同及相互协调程度，不仅可以预测植被生产潜力，可以依据气候变化趋势来预测未来的发展情况，是评估农业气候资源的依据之一[6]。……