肖汉斌 熊楚宸 祝锋 刘敏

摘要：针对目前起重机安全评价过于依赖主观权重且忽视起重机安全状态变化趋势的问题，建立基于改进博弈论组合赋权法（improved combination weighting method of game theory，ICWGT）和灰色关联分析法的起重机安全评价体系。在该评价体系中，收集样本数据以确定评价值，构建评价等级空间来计算起重机行为特征序列与标准行为特征序列的关联系数。运用ICWGT在层次分析法和信息熵-未确知测度理论确定的主、客观权重中寻找平衡。充分考虑专家经验和样本数据，确定优化权重以改善关联系数的分配问题，从而获取起重机灰色关联度评价值和安全等级，旨在对起重机安全状态变化趋势进行更加准确的定量描述和定性分析。实例分析验证了该评价体系的有效性。

关键词： 起重机; 安全评价; 灰色关联分析; 博弈论; 层次分析法

中图分类号： U653.921;X952    文献标志码： A

Safety evaluation for cranes based on ICWGT and grey

relational analysis method

XIAO Hanbin， XIONG Chuchen， ZHU Feng， LIU Min *

（School of Logistics Engineering， Wuhan University of Technology， Wuhan 430063， China）

Abstract： Aiming at the problem that the current safety evaluation for cranes is too dependent on subjective weight and neglects the changing trend of crane safety state， a safety evaluation system for cranes is proposed based on the improved combination weighting method of game theory （ICWGT） and the grey relational analysis method. In the evaluation system， the sample data are collected to determine the evaluation value， and the evaluation level space is constructed to calculate the correlation coefficient between the crane behavior characteristic sequence and the standard behavior characteristic sequence. The ICWGT is used to find the balance between the subjective and objective weights determined by the analytic hierarchy process and the information entropy-unknown measure theory. The expert experience and the sample data are fully considered to determine the optimization weight， which is used to improve the distribution of the correlation coefficient and obtain the crane grey correlation evaluation value and the safety level. The aim is to provide more accurate quantitative description and qualitative analysis on the changing trend of crane safety state. The effectiveness of the evaluation system is verified by example analysis.

Key words： crane; safety evaluation; grey relational analysis; game theory; analytic hierarchy process

0 引 言

在全球经济一体化不断深入推进的今天，港口作为全球集疏运网络中的重要节点，不但是对外贸易进出口货物的集散中心，而且是国际物流供应链的重要环节和物流通道枢纽，更是全球资源配置和价值链构建的重要平台[1]。然而，国内港口起重机服役超过十年的占比较大，甚至有部分起重机处于超期服役状态。港口起重机长期处于高腐蚀的海边环境，如何对港口起重机进行全面、准确的安全检验和安全等级评定，保障港口的安全生产，是当前我国港口起重设备检验检测所面临的重要课题。……