李国玉 聂永喜 达娃央宗 聂一丹

摘要 利用统计和突变分析方法，对贵南地区1978—2018年气候和4种植物物候（1992—2018年）的趋势变化特征进行了分析，探討了植物关键物候期与温度、降水的相关性以及对温度变化的响应趋势。结果表明，贵南地区温度、降水、日照时数的年际变化与气候变化基本相一致，温度呈上升趋势，降水呈增加趋势，日照时数呈下降趋势。物候期变化受当地气象条件及地理环境等因素的综合影响，温度、降水、日照是影响植物生长发育状况的重要气象因子。草本植物展叶盛期推迟明显，开花盛期趋势倾向率的变化幅度比展叶盛期要小一些，果实或种子完全成熟期变化趋势差异较大，黄枯普遍期一致提前;木本植物春季展叶盛期、落叶始期推迟的趋势不明显;果实或种子成熟期提前的趋势不明显。贵南地区年平均温度在1996年后开始逐步上升，突变发生在1994—1996年，植物全物候期突变点都发生在温度突变以后。植物物候对气候变化响应比较敏感，掌握当地气候和物候变化规律及可能产生的影响，对农业生产、生态环境监测、治理有一定的参考价值。

关键词 物候期;气候变化;气象因子;突变

中图分类号：Q948 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2095-3305（2020）02-029-04

DOI： 10.19383/j.cnki.nyzhyj.2020.02.013

Response of Natural Climate to Climate Change in Guinan of Qinghai Province

LI Guo-yu  et al（Guinan Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai Province，Guinan，Qinghai 813199）

Abstract By using the methods of statistics and mutation analysis，the trend change characteristics of climate in Guinan area from 1978 to 2018 and four plant phenology （1992-2018） were analyzed，and the correlation between key plant phenology and temperature，precipitation and the response trend to temperature change were discussed. The results showed that the interannual changes of temperature，precipitation and sunshine hours were basically consistent with the climate change，the temperature and the precipitation were on the rise，and the sunshine hours were on the decline. The change of phenology was affected by local meteorological conditions and geographical environment. Temperature，precipitation and sunshine were important meteorological factors that affect the growth and development of plants. The trend tendency rate of herbaceous plants in flowering stage was lower than that in leaf developing stage，and the trend of fruits or seeds in full maturity stage was different，and the general stage of yellow blight was advanced. The trend of delay in leaf development in spring and defoliation of woody plants was not obvious. The trend of advance in fruit or seed maturity was not obvious. The annual average temperature of Guinan area began to rise gradually after 1996，and the mutation occurred in 1994-1996. The whole phenological mutation of plants occurred after the temperature mutation. The response of plant phenology to climate change was relatively sensitive. Mastering the local climate and phenology change rules and possible impacts had certain reference value for agricultural production，ecological environment monitoring and governance.

Key words   Phenology;Climate change;Meteorological factors;Mutation

物候指自然环境中植物、动物生命活动的季节现象和一年中特定时间出现某些气象、水文现象[1]。中国是世界上最先开始研究自然物候的。从古至今流传著许许多多的自然物候谚语，这些都是古代辛勤劳动者的智慧结晶。……