唐红涛 廖欣鑫 吴忠才

摘 要： 从广义虚拟经济视角，在随机前沿引力模型的基础上，估计中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的跨境电商广义虚拟经济效率和潜力，并分析影响跨境电商规模增长的因素，选取2009-2018年中国与“一带一路”沿线61个国家的跨境电商规模为研究样本，实证结果显示：（1）整体的跨境电商广义虚拟经济效率呈现快速提升的发展态势，贸易阻力随时间变化而不断变化，蕴藏巨大的跨境电商潜力；（2）“一带一路”沿线国家的经济规模、互联网普及率和签订自由贸易协定均显著促进跨境电商规模的增长，地理距离对其影响不显著；（3）整体的跨境电商平均效率低于0.5，但跨境电商广义虚拟经济潜力的提升空间较大，高收入国家的跨境电商平均效率最高，中低收入国家增速明显，中高收入跨境电商潜力的提升空间最大。

关键词： “一带一路”；跨境电商大数据；广义虚拟经济效率；广义虚拟经济潜力

中图分类号： F746 文献标识码： A 文章编号： 1674-9448 （2020） 02-0059-09

Efficiency and Potential of Cross-border E-commerce between China and Countries Along the “Belt and Road”

——Empirical Analysis Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

TANG Hong-tao LIAO Xin-xin WU Zhong-cai

（1. School of Economics and Trade， Hunan University of Technology and Business， Hunan Changsha 410205， China；2. School of Economics and Management， Hunan Institute of Science and Technology， Hunan Yueyang 414006， China）

Abstract： From the perspective of generalized virtual economy， based on a stochastic frontier gravity model， this paper estimates the generalized virtual economy efficiency and potential of cross-border e-commerce between China and countries along the “Belt and Road”， and analyzes the factors affecting the growth of cross-border e-commerce. From 2009-2018， the scale of cross-border e-commerce between China and 61 countries along the “Belt and Road” is a research sample. The empirical results show that： （1） The overall cross-border e-commerce efficiency shows a rapid development trend， and trade resistance continues to change with time. Changes have huge potential for cross-border e-commerce； （2） The economic scale， internet penetration rate and signing of free trade agreements of countries along the“Belt and Road” have significantly promoted the growth of the scale of cross-border e-commerce， and the geographical distance has no significant impact on it； （3） The overall average efficiency of cross-border e-commerce is less than 0.5， but the potential for improvement of cross-border e-commerce is large. The average efficiency of cross-border e-commerce in high-income countries is the highest， and the growth rate of low- and middle-income countries is obvious， cross-border e-commerce has the greatest potential for improvement.

Key words： “Belt and Road”， big data of cross-border e-commerce，efficiency of generalized virtual economy， potential of generalized virtual economy

一、引言

非物質文化遗产具有典型的广义虚拟经济属性，跨境电商是以互联网为基础的新型国际贸易方式，也是中国与“一带一路”沿线国家经贸合作的转型舞台，具有典型的广义虚拟经济属性。随着“五通建设”的提出，设施互通助力跨境电商基础设施的完善，同时跨境电商的兴起促进政策沟通，加速贸易畅通和资金融通，借助既有的、行之有效的区域合作平台，跨境电商逐步成为“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长的新亮点。……