吴智伟　何园园

摘 要：基于未確知测度理论，建立改进的公路风险评估模型。首先，运用相关性分析确定影响公路风险的主要指标，并以此建立评价指标体系和评价标准;然后根据实测数据建立各影响因素的未确知测度函数，并利用信息熵理论计算各影响因素的指标权重，依照置信度识别准则判定等级;最后，得出公路风险的评价结果。该评价方法可以解决公路风险评价中的因素不确定性问题，并可解决原模型中指标极值的影响。运用本方法对青岛市某条公路进行公路风险评估，并与原方法进行比较，结果表明，该方法科学合理，有一定的实际应用价值。

关键词：未确知测度;交通工程;公路风险评估;相关性分析;信息熵

Abstract： Based on the unascertained measure theory， an improved highway risk assessment model is established. First， we use the correlation analysis to determine the main indicators that affect the highway risk， and establish the evaluation index system and evaluation criteria， and then establish the unascertained measure function of the influencing factors according to the measured data， and use the information entropy theory to calculate the index weight of the influencing factors and determine the grade according to the confidence recognition criteria; finally， the evaluation results of the highway risk are obtained. The evaluation method can solve the problem of uncertainty in highway risk assessment and solve the influence of extreme value in the original model. This method is used to evaluate the risk of a highway in Qingdao and compares it with the original method. The result shows that the method is scientific and reasonable and has some practical application value.

Key words：Unascertained measure; traffic engineering; highway risk assessment; correlation analysis; information entropy