熊亚骏　徐姗　黄建武　揭毅

摘要：城镇化是农业现代化的重要推动力之一，而农业现代化的快速发展也对城镇化提出进一步要求，同时二者也是中国经济发展不可或缺的元素。为了探究城镇化与农业现代化的关系，选取中国2006—2015年30个省（自治区、直辖市）的相关数据，运用门限回归模型对数据进行分析研究。结果表明，城镇化与农业现代化相互依托、相互促进，东部地区和东北地区城镇化率明显优于中西部地区，城镇化率高的区域农业现代化程度与之趋同。

关键词：城镇化；农业现代化；门槛效应；地区差异

中图分类号：S-01：F299.21 文献标识号：A 文章编号：1001-4942（2018）08-0169-04

Nonlinear Relationship between Urbanization and

Agricultural Modernization in China

Xiong Yajun， Xu Shan， Huang Jianwu， Jie Yi

（Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation，Hubei Province，Central China Normal University/

Research Institute for Sustainable Development，Central China Normal University，Wuhan 430079， China）

Abstract Urbanization is one of the important driving forces for agricultural modernization， and the rapid development of agricultural modernization also imposes further requirements on urbanization. At the same time， they are also indispensable elements of Chinas economic development. In order to explore the relationship between urbanization and agricultural modernization， the data from 30 provinces （municipalities） in China between 2006 and 2015 were selected and analyzed using a threshold model. The results showed that urbanization and agricultural modernization depended on each other and promoted each other. The urbanization rate in the east and northeast regions were obviously better than that in the central and western regions， and the level of regional agricultural modernization is similar in the regions with high urbanization rate.

Keywords Urbanization；Agricultural modernization；Threshold Effect；Regional Difference

城鎮化、农业现代化是助力经济发展的两股强劲之力，要想做好二者统筹发展，就必须从我国国情出发，恪守客观规律，处理好二者之间的关系[1-4]。为使传统农业逐渐走向现代农业，城乡经济社会协调发展，加快农业、农村现代化进程，必须使农业现代化和城镇化齐抓共管、协调联动、统一发展[5-8]。目前，中国城镇化水平高速提升，但农业现代化程度在多数地区仍比较低，在统筹城镇化、农业现代化的发展过程中也面临着诸多问题，如社会经济发展的差异与城乡居民收入差距都过大、农村向城镇过渡发展时投入比重仍然不足等。研究并处理好两者间的关系，寻求二者统筹发展的完美契合点，对于实现我国全面小康具有现实意义。

我国近几十年的发展过程就是城镇化、农业现代化协调联动的过程，其经济特征需要用分段函数进行描述。……