成炎　姜雪梅　周建华

摘要 随着城镇化的发展，山区农业劳动力老龄化现象突出，是今后一段时间必须面对的基本国情。该研究根据河北省承德市丰宁县农村调查数据，分析了农业劳动力老龄化对粮食生产的影响。结果表明：从事粮食生产的老年农民比其他农民投入更多的劳动时间，不会影响粮食产出；农业劳动力老龄化促使农村粮食生产组织形式发生动态变化，土地流转加快促使种粮大户出现，机械化水平提高可以减少粮食生产对劳动力的过多依赖。因此，农业劳动力老龄化对粮食生产没有影响，完善土地流转可以保证粮食生产向着更合理的方向稳定发展。

关键词 农业劳动力；老龄化；粮食生产

中图分类号 S-9；F323.6 文献标识码

A 文章编号 0517-6611（2015）15-286-03

The Impact of Agricultural Labor Force Aging on Grain Production—A Case of Fengning County in Hebei Province

CHENG Yan， JIANG Xuemei， ZHOU Jianhua* （Beijing Forestry University， Beijing 100083）

Abstract With the development of urbanization， the agricultural labor force aging is outstanding and we have to face this for a longtime. In this paper， the survey data from Fengning County in Hebei Province was used to analyze the impact of agricultural labor force aging on grain production. The results showed that elderly farmers engaged more time in agriculture production than other farmers causing no negative effects on grain output； the agricultural labor force migration significantly change the rural organizational forms of agriculture production in the long term. Farmers choose the most suitable production system for themselves. The rural land transfer help to form large size grain production farms and the promoted level of mechanization reduced the degree of reliance on labor force in agriculture production. Thus， the agricultural labor force aging has no impact on grain production. Improving land transfer mechanism will be good choice to reduce the negative impact of rural labor force aging.

Key words Agricultural labor； Aging； Food production

隨着我国工业化和城市化的发展，大量农村青壮年劳动力离开农村进入城市，加剧了我国农劳动力老龄化程度。第六次人口普查数据显示，我国农村人口当中60岁以上人口比例为14.97%[1]。农村劳动力转移及其导致的农业劳动力老龄化是否会对我国粮食生产产生影响，目前也没有一个统一的答案，不同学者从不同视角给予了解答。

有的学者认为农业劳动力老龄化对粮食生产有负面作用，会威胁我国农业发展和粮食安全[2]。劳动力转移带来的农业劳动力老龄化使农业劳动力减少进而影响了农业产出[3-4]。从不同年龄农民的个体特征角度来看，老年农民体能下降，更加倾向于种植易于耕种的品种，使作物种植单一化。……