邢容容　马安青　刘修锦等

摘要 以青岛市为研究区，利用1990、2000、2006和2011年遥感数据、社会经济统计数据等，采用多变量分析方法定量分析了近20年青岛市土地利用变化的驱动因子。首先对1990和2011年土地利用变化数据进行叠加分析，提取出主要土地利用类型发生变化的斑块，构建土地利用变化样本数据矩阵；然后提取变化图斑对应驱动因子的栅格数据，构建土地利用变化的驱动因子矩阵；在此基础上，采用典范對应分析（CCA）研究土地利用转换类型与驱动因子的相关关系，揭示了青岛市土地利用变化的特征，定量阐释了各类型土地变化的驱动因子。结果表明，海拔高度、地形起伏度、距海岸线的距离、人口密度是青岛市土地利用变化的主要驱动因子，其次为到城镇的距离、交通密度和GDP密度。

关键词 土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）；驱动因子；CCA排序；青岛市

中图分类号 S29；F301.2 文献标识码

A 文章编号 0517-6611（2015）15-298-04

Analysis on Relationship between Land Use Conversion Types and Influencing Factors of Qingdao City Based on CCA

XING Rongrong1，MA Anqing2*，LIU Xiujin1 et al （1.Qinhuangdao Mineral Resource and Hydrogeological Brigade，Hebei Geological Prospecting Bureau，Qinhuangdao，Hebei 066001； 2.College of Environmental Science and Engineering，Ocean University of China，Qingdao，Shandong 266100）

Abstract Land use/cover change（LUCC） is as a complex consequence of coupling effects of natural and anthropogenic factors.Clarifying the main driving factors of LUCC is crucial for future land resources management.Based on Landsat TM images and socioeconomic statistics in Qingdao City，the relationships between LUCC and driving factors were analyzed using multivariate analysis.Vector data of land use of Qingdao City in 1990 and 2011 were overlaid each other，the region of land use change were obtained and the matrix of land use change samples was constructed.The data of land use change and the data of driving factors were overlaid respectively，and the matrix of driving factors of land use change was constructed.Canonical correspondence analysis（CCA） was used for revealing the relationship between land use change and driving factors.The characteristics of land use change were revealed.The driving factors of various types of land use changes were quantitatively described.Elevation，relief amplitude，the distance between land use change site and coastal line and population density were the main driving factors for distribution of major land use conversion types.The next were the distance between land use change site and urban site，road network density and GDP.

Key words Land use/cover change（LUCC）； Driving factors； CCA； Qingdao City

土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）是全球环境变化的重要组成部分和主要原因之一，其产生的资源环境问题越来越突出，对气候、水资源变化、生态系统及粮食产量等有着重要影响，直接关系到水和土壤质量以及区域粮食安全和生态安全[1-5]。分析土地利用/覆被变化过程，探索其驱动因子，对土地资源可持续利用、经济社会可持续发展具有重要意义。

LUCC是自然、社会、经济和生态系统演变的直接表现，受自然与人类活动的双重影响，其变化机理的复杂性及其驱动因子之间相互作用的影响，决定了土地利用变化及其驱动因子之间并非简单的线性相关，必须从整体角度分析土地利用变化的驱动因子[6-9]。……