中图分类号：G644 文献标识码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1672-2272.202502051

Path Testing of The Transformation Mode of Scientific and Technological Achievements in Universities：AnalysisBASED ONBAYESIAN-SEM

KangHaiyuan，Liu Chi （School of Economics，South-Central University for Nationalities，Wuhan 43o074，China）

Abstract：In order to improve the conversion rate of scientific and technological achievements in universities，it is necessary to comprehensively understand the internal mechanisms and organizational models of scientific and technological achievement conversion.We select data on the transformation of scientific and technological achievements from universities in 28 provinces，and construct structural equation models for both endogenous and exogenous transformation models.Using Bayesian estimation method，the following conclusions are drawn：through the endogenous transformation model，the scientific and technological achievements of universities willhave a significant impact on economic output， while through the exogenous transformation model，the impact of scientific and technological achievements of universities on economic output is not significant.Furthermore，it is proposed that universities should choose the most suitable transformation mode based on their own research characteristics and policy support conditions，and explore a mixed mode of“endogenous + exogenous\".

Key Words：Scientific and Technological Achievements of Universities；Conversion Mode；Path Verification；Structural Equation Model

0 引言

党的二十大报告强调，要“加强企业主导的产学研深度融合，强化目标导向，提高科技成果转化和产业化水平”，这为我国科技创新与产业升级指明了方向。近年来，在政策推动下，我国科技成果转化工作取得显著成效。数据显示，2023年全国高校院所科技成果转化总合同金额攀升至2054.4亿元，相较于2019年的1085.9亿元，短短4年间实现了接近翻倍的增长，年均复合增长率约 18.4% ，充分体现了国家战略引导的积极成效和

投入力度的不断加大。

然而，与合同金额的快速增长形成鲜明对比的是，我国高校科技成果的实际转化率长期徘徊在 20% 以下，远低于发达国家水平。其中突出的矛盾是：一方面转化金额持续攀升，另一方面大量具有明确市场应用前景和潜在价值的专利技术，却因种种原因未能走出实验室、走向生产线，长期处于“闲置状态”1]。这种\"高金额、低转化”的困境，揭示了科技成果从“实验室”成功跨越到“生产线”仍存在深层次的体制机制障碍。

高校作为科技创新的重要策源地，其成果转化效率的低下，不仅造成了科研资源的巨大浪费，更直接制约着我国产业核心竞争力的提升和新质生产力的培育。要真正破解这一关键难题，亟须深人剖析科技成果转化链条中存在的堵点、断点和难点，全面剖析其内在的运行机制和复杂的组织逻辑。

1文献综述

近年来，国外学者关于高校技术转移的研究成果较为丰富，焦点主要集中于技术转让模式及组织形式的探讨和技术转让影响因素分析两个方面。……