孙永寿 刘弢 李燕

摘 要：受全球暖濕化影响，青海省水资源呈现出明显由枯转丰的变化，降水量持续偏丰使全省水资源量呈显著增加趋势，流域产流机理也相应发生了明显变化，但在黄河源区呈现出降水增加、径流减小的态势。依据黄河源区1956—2016年水文气象资料，通过趋势、突变、距平等分析方法，初步分析进入21世纪以来黄河源区各水文气象要素的变化特征及规律，源区降水与径流变化趋势不一致的原因。结果表明：近年来黄河源区气温升高，蒸发量总体呈增加趋势;门堂以上、玛曲以下降水量呈增加趋势，门堂至玛曲区间降水量呈减小趋势;受气温和蒸发量增加的影响，源区产流系数明显减小，使径流变幅较降水变幅更大，由于降水增加区产生的径流增加量小于降水减小区产生的径流减小量，因此整个黄河源区总体上呈现出降水增加而径流减小的趋势;气温升高蒸散发能力增强、流域耗损量增加、产流系数降低是降水和径流变化产生差异的主要原因。

关键词：降水径流;差异分析;影响因素;黄河源区

中图分类号：TV121;TV882.1

文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.10.010

引用格式：孙永寿，刘弢，李燕.黄河源区降水径流一致性及影响因素分析[J].人民黄河，2021，43（10）：51-55，101.

Abstract： Affected by global warming and humidification， water resources in Qinghai Province have changed significantly from dry to rich since 2005. The continuous high rainfall has caused a significant increase in the provinces water resources and the mechanism of river basin runoff generation has also been changed significantly. However， in the source area of the Yellow River， the precipitation is increased and runoff decreased. Based on the hydrological and meteorological data of the source area of the Yellow River from 1956 to 2016， through the analysis methods of trends， mutations and distances， this paper preliminarily analyzed the changing characteristics and laws of various hydro-meteorological elements in the source region of the Yellow River since the 21th century and the reasons for the inconsistent trend of precipitation and runoff in the source region. The results show that in recent years， the evaporation of the source area of the Yellow River is increased with the increase of temperature. The precipitation above Mentang and below Maqu shows an increasing trend， while the precipitation between Mentang and Maqu shows a decreasing trend. Affected by the increase of temperature and evaporation， the runoff yield coefficient in the source area is significantly reduced， making the runoff variation larger than the precipitation variation. As the runoff increment generated by precipitation increasing area is less than the runoff decrease generated by precipitation decreasing area， the whole source area of the Yellow River presents a trend of precipitation increasing and runoff decreasing. The increase of temperature， the enhancement of evapotranspiration， the increase of watershed consumption and the decrease of runoff yield coefficient are the main reason for the difference between precipitation and runoff.

Key words： precipitation runoff; difference analysis; influencing factors; source area of the Yellow River

進入21世纪以来，青海省黄河流域乃至整个黄河流域呈现降水增加、径流减小的态势，2001—2016年青海省黄河流域降水量仅有26%形成了河川径流，较1956—2000年减少13%，剩余74%消耗于地表水体、植被的蒸散发及潜水蒸发，整个黄河流域只有近15%的降水形成了河川径流，消耗比例更高。……