江惠君 吴斌 卢红丽

摘  要：由于公共卫生事件及自然灾害事件频发，提升政府应急物资保障能力迫在眉睫。为研究政府应急物资的储备与再订购问题，文章基于二次订购报童模型，考虑突发事件的随机性、突发事件前后订购成本不同等因素，构建了政企合作前提下政府应急物资储备与采购决策模型，最后通过数值算例验证模型的有效性并分析相关参数的影响。研究结果表明：（1）与一次订购策略相比，二次订购能降低政府储备压力并提高社会期望效益;（2）应急物资的成本、残值、缺货损失等均会对政府采购决策产生影响;（3）对于突发事件发生概率大的地区，二次订购策略更能提升政府应急物资保障能力。

关键词：应急物资采购;二次订购报童模型;随机事件点

中图分类号：F253    文献标识码：A

Abstract： Due to the frequent occurrence of public health events and natural disasters， it is urgent to improve the government's emergency material support capacity. In order to study the problem of government emergency supplies reserve and reorder， based on the second order newsboy model， considering the randomness of emergencies， different ordering costs before and after emergencies and other factors， this paper constructs a decision-making model of government emergency supplies reserve and procurement under the premise of government enterprise cooperation. Finally， a numerical example is given verify the validity of the model and analyze the influence of relevant parameters. The results show that：（1）compared with the one-time ordering strategy， the two-time ordering strategy can reduce the pressure of government reserves and improve the social expected benefits;（2）the cost， residual value and shortage loss of emergency materials will have an impact on the government procurement decision-making;（3）the two-time ordering strategy can better improve the government emergency material support ability in areas with high probability of emergency.

Key words： emergency material procurement; newsboy model with two orders; random event point

0  引  言

2020年是我国公共卫生事件和灾害事故频发的一年，年初爆发的COVID-19新冠肺炎疫情、7月份长江淮河流域特大暴雨导致的洪涝灾害等都给人们的生命和财产安全造成了巨大损失与威胁。公共卫生事件和灾害事故均属于突发事件，具有不确定性、爆发性的特点，并且对应急物资需求的响应速度以及数量要求极高。而政府作为保障人民生命和财产安全的责任人，面对频发的突发事件以及日益复杂的社会经济条件，其应急管理能力与应急物资保障能力受到了严峻的挑战。因此，如何构建合理有效的应急物资采购模型，提高政府决策的质量效果，具有重要的理论和应用价值。……