吴玉林 张文曦 陈东旭 赵义军

一、引言

“突发公共事件”是指具有偶发性、突然性、危害性，造成人员伤亡、财产损失、生态环境破坏和社会危害的公共事件。①Farazmand A, Handbook of Crisis and Emergency Management, CRC Press, 2001.Szcygielski等指出不同时期，引发不同类型突发公共事件的原因不同，影响危害范围、程度各有差异。①Szczygielski J J, Brzeszczyński J, Charteris A, et al, “The COVID-19 Storm and the Energy Sector: The Impact and Role of Uncertainty”, in Energy Economics, 2021, 105258.进入21世纪以来，全球发生过SARS、日本福岛核电站事故、澳洲山火，我国暴发了南冰灾、强台风“威马逊”。突发公共事件可能会引发能源消费突然增加、能源生产停止、能源运输中断以及引起能源市场波动等情况。

自然灾害事件会冲击能源基础设施、能源运输和储备体系。Lee等发现自然灾害可能会损害能源消费，对于低水平能源消费带动的经济，其影响更为明显。②Lee C C, Wang C W, Ho S J, et al, “The Impact of Natural Disaster on Energy Consumption: International Evidence”，in Energy Economics, 2020, Vol.97, 105021.Panteli和Mancarella强调自然灾害对世界任何地方的电力系统、电力安全构成巨大威胁。③Panteli M，Mancarella P,“Modeling and Evaluating the Resilience of Critical Electrical Power Infrastructure to Extreme Weather Events”, in IEEE Systems Journal, 2015, Vol.11, No.3, pp.1733—1742.Freeman和Hancock④Freeman J, Hancock L,“Energy and Communication Infrastructure for Disaster Resilience in Rural and Regional Australia”, in Regional Studies: The Journal of the Regional Studies Association, 2017, Vol.51, No.6, pp.933—944.、Najafi等⑤Najafi J, Peiravi A, Anvari-Moghaddam A, et al,“Power-Heat Generation Sources Planning in Microgrids to Enhance Resilience Against Islanding Due to Natural Disasters”, in 28th International Symposium on Industrial Electronics(ISIE 2019), 2019, pp.2446—2451.研究灾害对大型电网能源造成的损害，发现灾害可能会导致大型电网广泛而漫长的中断，微电网长期无法连接到主要的电力或燃气网络等情况，引发人们对关键能源设施脆弱性的担忧。Gündüz等⑥Gündüz N, Küfeoğlu S, Lehtonen M,“Impacts of Natural Disasters on Swedish Electric Power Policy: A Case Study”, in Sustainability, 2017, Vol.9, No.2, pp.1—11.、Ilbeigi和Dilkina⑦Ilbeigi M, Dilkina B,“Statistical Approach to Quantifying the Destructive Impact of Natural Disasters on Petroleum Infrastructures”，in Journal of Management in Engineering, 2018, Vol.34, No.1, 04017042.分别研究以瑞典为代表的国家长期遭受不可接受的停电困扰，美国受四大飓风冲击影响了能源供应和能源安全。福岛核灾难作为自然灾害中的一个特例，Shadrina⑧Shadrina E,“Fukushima Fallout: Gauging the Change in Japanese Nuclear Energy Policy”, in International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2012, Vol.3, No.2, pp.69—83.、Altomonte⑨Altomonte H,“Japan’s Nuclear Disaster: Its Impact on Electric Power Generation Worldwide (in My View)”, in IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, 2012, Vol.10, No.3, p.96.得出结论：在事件发生后日本能源转型陷入困境，同时核能的未来及其在世界能源供应中的地位受到质疑。

公共卫生事件严重影响着全球能源市场。为使新冠肺炎疫情威胁最小化，世界各国被迫减少商业活动，导致电力负荷需求结构陡降，最终影响各国能源需求状况。……