赵志楠 孙晶 张兆博 何凯 李迪

摘要 根据邢台市1980—2019年逐日降水数据、1∶25万高程数据以及相关社会、经济等基础资料，利用GIS技术构建邢台市暴雨洪涝灾害风险综合评价模型，从致灾因子的危险等级、孕灾环境、承灾体、防灾减灾能力4个方面对研究区域暴雨洪涝进行定量分析，计算出全市范围暴雨洪涝灾害综合风险指数，得到邢台市暴雨洪涝风险区划图。结果表明，邢台县、沙河市、内丘县、临城县西部地区属于洪涝灾害风险最高的地区;邢台市辖区和沙河市、临城县、内丘县、柏乡县大部分地区属于次高风险地区;其余县市属于中等及以下风险水平。

关键词 GIS;暴雨洪涝;风险区划;邢台市

中图分类号 P426.616 文献标识码 A 文章编号 0517-6611（2021）17-0217-04

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2021.17.055

Abstract Based on the daily precipitation data， 1∶250，000 elevation data and related social and economic data of Xingtai City from 1980 to 2019， a comprehensive risk assessment model of rainstorm and flood disasters in Xingtai City was established by using GIS technology. The regional rainstorm and flood were studied from four aspects： disaster-causing factors， disaster-pregnant environment， disaster-bearing bodies， disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. The comprehensive risk index of rainstorm and flood disasters in the whole city was calculated by quantitative analysis of waterlogging， and the risk zoning map of rainstorm and flood in Xingtai City was obtained. The results showed that the western areas of Xingtai County， Shahe City， Neiqiu County and Lincheng County were the areas with the highest risk of flood disaster; most areas of Xingtai and Shahe City， Lincheng County， Neiqiu County and Baixiang County belong to the sub-high risk areas; the remaining counties and cities belong to the middle and lower risk levels.

Key words GIS;Rainstorm and flood;Risk zoning;Xingtai City

近年來，国内外众多学者就暴雨灾害发生的原因及评估指标、评估方法进行了研究，这些研究大都是在利用ArcGIS信息处理技术的基础上，得到研究区域不同等级的区划结果[1-8]。这些研究对于指导完成邢台市的暴雨灾害风险评估区划有着重要的指导意义。邢台市地处河北省中南部，位于太行山东部，毗邻山西省，地形复杂，自西向东山地、丘陵、平原呈阶梯状分布。邢台市气候类型为温带季风气候，雨热同期，夏季高温多雨，冬季寒冷干燥。相对复杂多变的地形以及气候为邢台市暴雨灾害的发生创造了一定的条件，邢台市的暴雨灾害多发生在降雨相对较多的夏季，特别是6—9月份更是频发，暴雨灾害给邢台市人民的生命安全和财产带来了严重威胁。……