蔡明 颜坤 熊超 曹瑞

摘  要：平流层浮空器飞行试验要求在拟定空域范围内开展，通过寻找平流层准零风层来实现区域驻空飞行。本文利用探空仪获取了试验地区风速、风向、压力、温度要素随高度分布规律，同时进行该地区平流层准零风层判断分析，使用包含平流层浮空器动力学模型和热力学模型的计算软件进行飞行轨迹仿真，并结合实际地域进行飞行轨迹和落点预测。结果表明：在探测时间段内，该地区20km高度附近存在风速不大于5m/s的弱风层，18～22km存在风向变化超过180°的切变风;17～19km最低温度为-71℃，19～22km温度由-70℃上升至～59℃;19～22km压力由65.4hpa降低至40hpa;在19～20km区间，存在持续时间不小于12h的准零风层，基于气象要素规律仿真预测12h内飞行轨迹不超出拟定空域，落点在开阔地点，并通过飞行试验得到有效验证。

关键词：飞行轨迹预测  气象探测  浮空器  平流层

中图分类号：TN95                            文献标识码：A文章编号：1674-098X（2021）04（b）-0009-06

Forecasting Method of Stratospheric Aerostat Flight Trajectory Based on Meteorological Detection

CAI Ming  YAN Kun  XIONG Chao   CAO Rui

（Beijing Near Space Airship Technology Development Co.， Ltd.， Beijing， 100070  China）

Abstract： The flight test of the stratospheric aerostat is required to be carried out within the scope of the proposed airspace， and the regional stationary flight is achieved by searching for the stratospheric quasi-zero wind layer. This paper uses radiosondes to obtain the distribution of wind speed， wind direction， pressure， and temperature in the test area with height. At the same time， the stratospheric quasi-zero wind layer in the area is judged and analyzed. Use calculation software including stratospheric aerostat dynamic model and thermodynamic model to simulate flight trajectory， and predict flight trajectory and landing point in combination with actual area. The results show that during the detection period， there is a weak wind layer with a wind speed of not more than 5m/s near the height of 20km in the area， and there is a shear wind with a wind direction change exceeding 180°at 18～22km; The lowest temperature of 17～19km is -71℃， the temperature of 19～22km rises from -70℃ to -59℃; the pressure of 19～22km decreases from 65.4hpa to 40hpa; In the 19～20km interval， there is a quasi-zero wind layer with a duration of no less than 12 hours. Based on the simulation of meteorological elements， it is predicted that the flight trajectory will not exceed the planned airspace within 12 hours， and the landing point will be in an open place， which is effectively verified by flight tests.

Key Words： Flight trajectory prediction; Weather detection; Aerostat; Stratosphere

平流層浮空器在普通航空器之上及航天器之下，具有航空、航天飞行器所不具备的优势。作为一种高分辨率对地观测平台，其覆盖范围广 ，在通信保障、情报收集、预警、民用等方面都具有很大的发展潜力，广泛应用于监视、科学调查、数据通讯等领域[1]。平流层20km高度附近的气温、气压、密度和风速等随时空不断变化的大气参量，对临近空间低速飞行器的飞行姿态与动力控制有着明显的影响[2]。平流层准零风层为平流层下层20km高度附近的大气层， 上下层东西风风向相反，即下层的西风（东风）转向为东风（西风），同时南北风分量很小，浮空器一般在平流层准零风层驻空飞行[3]。……