严铠 赵海燕

摘    要： 通过构建贸易扩展引力模型，分析我国蔬菜对东盟出口贸易影响因素和贸易市场潜力。结果表明：进口区域东盟的人口数量、班轮连通性指数等因素对贸易影响显著，而我国各因素对贸易影响均不显著。“一带一路”倡议等贸易制度因素对出口贸易影响显著。我国蔬菜对东盟出口贸易市场潜力分为巨大型、开拓型、再造型三类，应进一步加大对越南、马来西亚等市场的开拓力度，挖掘新加坡等市场的巨大潜力。

关键词： 蔬菜贸易; 东盟; 引力模型; 影响因素; 贸易潜力

中图分类号： S63 文献标识码： B 文章编号： 1673-2871（2021）06-091-06

Research on the potential of China's vegetable export to ASEAN under the background of “the belt and road”

YAN Kai1， ZHAO Haiyan1

（School of Economics and Managements， Beijing University of Agriculture/Beijing Research Center for Rural Development， Beijing 102206， China）

Abstract： This paper analyzes the influence factors and trade market potential of China's vegetables on ASEAN's export trade by constructing the Gravity model of Trade Expansion. The results show that factors such as the population size and the shift connectivity index of ASEAN in the import region have significant influence on trade， while the influence of various factors on trade in China is not significant. Trade regime factors such as the Belt and Road Initiative have a significant impact on export trade. China's vegetable export trade market potential size is divided into huge type， pioneering type， re-modeling three categories. The development of Vietnam， Malaysia and other markets should further strangthened， as well as huge potential of Singapore and other markets to be tapped.

Key words： Vegetable trade; ASEAN; Gravity model; Influencing factors; Trade potential

自中国与东盟启动自由贸易区建设（2002年）至“一带一路”倡议提出（2013年），经过10多年的发展，东盟成为我国第一大蔬菜贸易伙伴。2019年我国对东盟出口蔬菜340万t左右，约占我国对世界出口总量的29.2%，位列第一[1-2]。随着“一带一路”深入推进及双循环新发展格局的构建，优化对东盟蔬菜出口贸易结构有利于巩固双方合作成果和提升我国开放合作水平。

蔬菜贸易作为农产品贸易重要组成部分，学术界对其相关问题研究较多，但在我国对东盟出口贸易潜力的研究方面相对缺乏。研究我国对东盟蔬菜出口贸易潜力对优化贸易结构、促进蔬菜出口等具有重要意义。张哲晰等[3]利用固定效果引力模型分析我国对30个国家和地区的蔬菜贸易影响因素，结果表明资源禀赋与技术是最主要因素，应在充分挖掘价格优势的前提下努力改善产品品质并有针对性地进行多元化贸易。……