陈培彬 朱朝枝

摘要： 为了回答非农就业是否能够释放农村消费市场潜力、优化家庭消费结构的现实问题，基于中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS） 2018数据，综合运用OLS、分位数回归与中介效应等计量模型，实证检验非农就业对农村居民家庭消费升级的影响机制。结果表明：（1）非农就业显著提高了农村居民家庭消费水平以及发展与享受型消费的结构占比，这一结论在利用“是否有工资性收入”替换关键变量进行稳健性检验后依然成立。（2）异质性分析结果表明，非农就业对农村居民家庭消费升级的影响系数随着家庭纯收入的上升而明显递增且始终显著为正，此外，影响效应呈现西部地区最高，中部地区次之、东部地区稍差的差异化格局。（3）非农就业对农村居民家庭消费升级的影响会通过家庭收入增加与社会资本积累的中介作用实现。

关键词： 非农就业;收入效应;偏好效应;农村居民;消费升级

中图分类号： D422.7 文献标识码： A 文章编号： 1000-4440（2021）03-0772-11

Will non-agricultural employment promote the consumption upgrading of rural households？—An empirical test based on the theory of income and preference effect

CHEN Pei-bin1， ZHU Chao-zhi1，2

（1.School of Economics and Management， Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University， Fuzhou 350002， China;2.New Rural Development Institute of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University， Fuzhou 350002， China）

Abstract： To answer the practical question of whether non-agricultural employment can release the consumption potential of rural market and optimize the household consumption structure， econometric models such as ordinary least square （OLS）， quantile regression and intermediary effect were used to empirically test the impact mechanism of non-agricultural employment on rural household consumption upgrading comprehensively based on China Family Panel Studies （CFPS） data in 2018. The results showed that， （1） non-agricultural employment significantly increased the total household consumption and the proportion of development and enjoyment consumption structure for rural residents. The above conclusion was still valid after using “wage income” to replace the key variables for robustness test. （2） Heterogeneity analysis showed that， the impact coefficient of non-agricultural employment on the upgrading of rural household consumption increased significantly with the increase of household net income， and was always significantly positive. In addition， the impact effect in the western region was the highest， followed by the central region， and later in the eastern region， which showed a differentiation pattern. （3） The impact of non-agricultural employment on the upgrading of rural household consumption will be realized through the intermediary role of the increase of family income and the accumulation of social capital.

Key words： non-agricultural employment;income effect;preference effect;rural residents;consumption upgrading

需求與消费的理论深化与实践应用是经济学科经久不衰的研究要点之一[1]。进入21世纪，全球化的深度融合在促进经济高速增长的同时也导致不确定因素陡增，世界局势错综复杂，风险时代悄然而至。近年来，单边主义与贸易保护主义抬头以及新冠疫情的意外冲击进一步加剧了世界经济复苏前景的模糊性，如何通过扩容提质形成国内需求消费市场的经济自循环，成为政府与学术界的关注热点[2]。改革开放以来，得益于信息技术革新、基础设施建设以及公共服务供给的比较优势，消费升级理念深刻内嵌于城镇居民家庭的消费结构转型。……