郭耀 何保红

摘  要：城市建成环境对出行碳排放具有长期影响作用，两者关系一直以来受到学者们的广泛关注。已有研究忽视了生命周期变化带来人群影响的差异性，这可能导致错估建成环境影响程度。文章基于生命周期理论将人群分成单身期、新婚期、育儿期、教育期和向老期，利用多元线性回归探讨了建成环境对居民出行碳排放影响程度。结果表明：不同生命周期的人群出行碳排放受到建成环境影响的尺度和指标均存在一定差异性，并且这种差异性与生命周期变化存在一定的关联性。

关键词：出行碳排放;建成环境;生命周期

中图分类号：F570    文献标识码：A

Abstract： The urban built environment has long term impact on travel carbon emissions， and the relationship between them has attracted much scholarly attention. In general， heterogeneity of residents due to the development of life cycle has been ignored in previous studies， and it may miscalculate the influence of built environment. Based on the theory of life cycle，this study which uses multiple linear regression equation discusses the effects of built environment on residents' travel carbon emissions by different stages of life cycle that is composed of single-period， newlyweds-period， parenting-period， educating children-period and ging-period. Result shows that the influence of built environment on travel carbon emission is affected by residents' stage of life cycle in terms of scales and indicators， and the differences are related to the development of residents' stage of life cycle.

Key words： travel carbon emission; built environment; life cycle

0  引  言

减少交通带来的出行碳排放一直是交通可持续发展、智慧交通的重要议题[1-2]。随着国内社会经济的快速发展，居民日常生活水平显著提高，机动车保有量迅速提升，导致国内交通出行碳排放总量放逐年增加[3]。与此同时，国内不少城市空间的蔓延式发展在某种程度上可能导致居民日常出行方式机动化，加剧了出行碳排放量的增长趋势[4]。因此探究城市交通出行碳排放量和城市空间之间的关系一直以来受到学者的广泛关注。

已有研究中主要从不同空间尺度探讨了建成环境对出行碳排放影响机制。早期研究主要从宏观城市角度来看待两者关系，主要关注城市结构本身如何影响出行碳排放。如马静等学者通过探讨北京市不同社区类型居民出行碳排放差异，发现出行距离、出行方式对出行碳排放具有显著效用，同时单位社区居民日常出行更加“低碳化”[5]。……