郭文玉 王晓红

摘    要：订单农业在促进小农户与大市场衔接、降低小农户市场风险、节约交易成本、调整农业产业结构、促进农户增收、保障农产品质量安全方面发挥着积极的作用。通过对庆安县286位稻农的调查数据，运用二元Logistic回归模型，从稻农的个人特征、生产经营特征、主观因素、外部环境分析了影响农户参与订单农业的主要影响因素。研究结果表明，种植水稻规模、是否加入合作社、企业回款速度、提供技术和生产资料、订单水稻产量、订单水稻补贴满意度、周围稻农的影响这7项为显著因素。从政府和企业角度，提出促进土地流转、加强订单农业宣传、加强农业科技创新、提高回款速度、保证订单水稻产量等针对性建议。

关键词：庆安县;订单农业;影响因素;Logistic模型

中图分类号：F323             文献标志码：A           DOI 编码：10.3969/j.issn.1006-6500.2021.04.012

Abstract： Order agriculture plays an active role in promoting the connection between small farmers and large markets， reducing the market risk of small farmers， saving transaction costs， adjusting the structure of agricultural industry， promoting farmers' income， and ensuring the quality and safety of agricultural products. Based on the survey data of 286 rice farmers in Qing'an County and the dual Logistic regression model， the main influencing factors affecting farmers' participation in order agriculture were analyzed from the personal characteristics， production and management characteristics， subjective factors and external environment of rice farmers. The results showed that the scale of rice planting， whether to join the cooperative， the speed of enterprise payment， the provision of technology and means of production， the output of rice orders， the satisfaction of rice subsidies and the influence of surrounding rice farmers were the significant factors.From the perspective of the government and enterprises， some suggestions were put forward， such as promoting land circulation， strengthening the propaganda of order agriculture， strengthening the innovation of agricultural science and technology， improving the speed of payment collection， and ensuring the yield of order rice.

Key words：Qing'an County; order agriculture;influencing factors; Logistic model

2017年开始，庆安县开始通过合作社质量提升、农业生产社会化服务等项目鼓励和支持订单农业发展，同时扶持龙头企业发展，支持建立利益联结机制，对参与订单农业的农户通过补贴形式来扩大订单农户的面积。庆安县是中国绿色食品之乡、大米之乡，是首批国家级生态示范区建设试点区。庆安县水稻产区分布了14个乡镇，是黑龙江省4个百万亩水稻种植县之一。

1 数据来源和样本描述性分析

1.1 数据来源

调研选取庆安縣下属的14个乡镇，有久胜镇、庆安镇、致富乡、发展乡、平安镇、欢胜乡、同乐乡、民乐乡、勤劳镇、巨宝山乡、新胜乡、大罗镇、建民乡、丰收乡。通过实地调研进行访谈了解，本次调研一共发出问卷 300份，收回问卷 286份，无效问卷14份。……