朱世艳 刘崇献

摘  要：鉴于国际物流绩效是反映一个国家物流发展水平和贸易便利化程度的重要指标，文章以2018年世界银行发布的物流绩效指数LPI作为切入点，根据67个“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的LPI指数及其分项指标，利用扩展贸易引力模型对“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的物流绩效对我国出口贸易的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明：物流绩效水平有利于促进我国的出口贸易;各项具体指标对中国出口贸易的影响具有异质性，其中海关效率影响最大，其它依次为国际货物运输便利性、物流服务能力、货物运输及时性、货物可追溯性、物流基础设施质量。

关键词：国际物流绩效;引力模型;出口贸易;一带一路

中图分类号：F250    文献标识码：A

Abstract： International logistics performance is the key factor to reflect a country's logistics development level and the degree of trade facilitation. Relying on 2018 data from the World Bank's logistic performance index（LPI）and the sub-indexes， this paper estimated expanded trade gravity model

equations to empirically analyze the impact of international logistics performance of 67 countries and regions along the belt and road on China's export trade. The research results show that： logistics performance in countries and regional along the belt and road has a significant effect on China's export trade; and its sub-indexes on China's export trade in different route are heterogeneous. Among the sub-indexes of LPI， it is found that the greatest impetus of China's export increase is the efficiency of customs clearance， followed by the improvement of international transportation， the quality of logistics services， the frequency with which shipments reach consignees within scheduled or expected delivery times， the ability to track and trace consignments and the quality of trade and transportation infrastructure.

Key words： international logistics performance; gravity model; export trade; the belt and road

0  引  言

建設丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路，是以习近平同志为核心的党中央作出的重大决策，旨在促进全球资源高效配置和市场深度融合，推进沿线国家和地区更高水平发展，实现我国与“一带一路”沿线国家和地区更高水平和更深层次的合作[1]。其中“一带一路”倡议中所提出的贸易畅通和资金融通是充分发挥“一带一路”沿线国家和地区资源禀赋优势和提高区域经济发展的重要支撑[2]。随着“一带一路”倡议的提出，该倡议得到了不少“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的积极响应和支持。

但是，当前“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的各大物流通道在建设上仍然存在不少问题，那么“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的物流基础和物流服务的进一步提升能否提高中国的出口贸易增长？……