王家明 杨帆 黄以婷 杜雪怡

摘要：为了深入了解江苏省经济高质量发展现状、探析发展路径，基于经济计量学相关理论，从水平测度和影响因素2个方面对江苏省经济高质量发展进行了评价。首先，构建DEA-Malmquist指数模型对江苏省2008—2018年间经济高质量发展水平测度进行时间和空间的双维度分析;其次，构建动态面板数据模型对江苏省经济高质量发展中科技研发投入、人力资本、金融效率、城镇化水平、对外开放水平、居民生活水平、产业结构、环境规制等八要素的影响进行分析。结果显示，1）10年间，江苏省经济高质量发展水平有明显提升，且苏南>苏北>苏中;2）科技研发投入、人力资本、金融效率、居民生活水平及环境规制等五要素对江苏省经济高质量发展有明显促进效应;城镇化水平、对外开放水平、产业结構等三要素在一定程度上阻碍经济了其高质量发展水平的提升。研究结果可为江苏省经济决策提供智力支持，也对其他省市经济高质量发展研究具有借鉴作用。

关键词：经济计量学; 经济高质量发展; 绿色全要素生产率; DEA-Malmquist指数模型; 系统GMM模型

中图分类号：F064.1文献标识码：ADOI： 10.7535/hbgykj.2021yx03007

Abstract： In order to deeply understand the current situation of high-quality economic development and explore the development path in Jiangsu Province， based on the relevant theories of econometrics， the high-quality economic development of Jiangsu Province was evaluated from two aspects： the level measurement and the influencing factors. Firstly， the two-dimensional analysis of time and space was conducted to measure the high-quality economic development level of Jiangsu Province from 2008 to 2018 by constructing the DEA-Malmquist index model. Secondly， a dynamic panel intellectual model was established to analyze the impact factors of the high-quality economic development in Jiangsu Province， including scientific and technological R&D investment， human capital， financial efficiency， urbanization level， opening-up level， living standards of residents， industrial structure， and environmental regulations. The results show that： 1） the level of high-quality economic development in Jiangsu Province has been significantly improved in the past 10 years， and Southern Jiangsu>Northern Jiangsu> Central Jiangsu; 2） the five elements of science and R&D input， human resources， financial efficiency， living standards of residents and environmental regulations have significantly promoted the high-quality economic development of Jiangsu Province. The three elements of urbanization， opening up and industrial structure have hindered the improvement of its high-quality development level to a certain extent. The research results can provide intellectual support for the high-quality economic decision-making of Jiangsu Province， and can also provide a reference for the high-quality economic development research in other provinces and cities.

Keywords：econometrics; high-quality economic development; green total factor productivity; DEA-Malmquist index model; systematic GMM model

改革开放以来，经济的高速增长创造了举世瞩目的中国奇迹，但依赖于要素投入的粗放型经济也带来了一系列的生态环境问题，成为制约中国经济高质量发展的主要瓶颈，因此推动经济高质量发展是中国经济发展主旋律，研究经济高质量发展及其影响因素具有重要性和必要性。