摘   要：近年来，我国城市公共危机事件频繁发生，传统的决策范式难以满足当前高度复杂性、高度不确定性危机治理需要。随着5G时代的到来，云计算、大数据、人工智能、物联网等信息技术加速融合，一种融合数据驱动和模型驱动的“数据-智慧”决策范式正在形成，应急情境、决策主体、方式方法、应急流程和决策目标也随之发生深刻转换。同时，依托“数据-智慧”模型的自动决策和人机协同决策功能，可以创新危机决策运行机制，驱动城市公共危机治理不断趋向于智能化、快捷化、精准化。

关键词：决策模型;数据-智慧;城市公共危机;大数据赋能

中图分类号：D63   文献标识码：A   DOI：10.11968/tsyqb.1003-6938.2021014

"Data-wisdom" Decision Model： The Innovation of City Public Crisis Decision-making Empowered by Big Data

Abstract In recent years， city public crisis events have occurred frequently in our country and traditional decision-making paradigm is difficult to satisfy the governance request of public crisis with high complexity and uncertainty. With the coming of 5G era， information technology such as cloud computing， big data， artificial intelligence， internet of things accelerate the integration， and a decision-making paradigm of "data-wisdom" is emerging which is integrated data-driven with model-driven， and the emergency situation， decision subject， ways and means， emergency process， decision goal have been undergoing profound changes accordingly. Meanwhile， based on the "data-wisdom" decision model which has the function of automatic and human-computer collaborative decision， it is possible to create crisis decision operation mechanism， and to promote city public crisis governance to become intelligent， rapid， and precise.

Key words decision-making model; data-wisdom; city public crisis; big data empowerment

1   引言

近年來，我国城市公共危机频繁发生，如2014年上海外滩踩踏事件、2015年天津滨海新区特大爆炸事件、深圳光明新区滑坡事件、2019年新型冠状病毒肺炎事件等高度复杂性、高度不确定性事件，造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失，直接影响着社会经济发展，也给党和政府特别是地方政府的公共管理和公共决策带来巨大挑战。“管理就是决策”[1]，公共危机管理的核心也就是危机决策。所谓危机决策是指当危机事件发生或即将发生时，决策者在时间紧迫、人力和资源有限和信息不完全的情况下，为尽可能控制事态、最大限度减少人员伤亡和财产损失，而确定应采取的并随事态发展不断调整的应对危机事件方案和措施过程[2]。

与常规决策相比，当前城市重大公共危机应急决策具有环境多变、信息不完全、跨域性、风险高、时效性强、多主体、多阶段、动态性等特点，对信息的完备性和及时性具有高度依赖性。……