王国桥 李尧远

摘 要：由于气候变化、城市化、人口数量骤增等原因，全球灾害风险不断加剧，灾害风险引起国内外学者的共同关注，各类相关文献急剧增长。对于国际灾害风险文献的研究趋势与热点进行梳理，不仅有利于国内学者了解国际灾害风险研究的发展动态，也可为我国本土化的灾害风险研究和发展提供借鉴与参考。文中基于WOS数据库并利用CiteSpace可视化软件梳理2000—2020年国际“灾害风险”文献，通过聚类、共现分析对灾害风险的研究内容、热点、作者、国家、机构进行分析。结果表明，在研究内容上，国际灾害风险发文数量自2015年以来呈现出快速上升趋势，内容主要包括仙台框架、人工智能、时空数据分析、备灾、社会能力建设、关键评估环节、科学知识、超级厄尔尼诺事件等方面;研究重点上，主要集中于“仙台框架”“灾害风险评估”“灾害风险的防控”方面;在研究作者、国家、机构方面，作者分布呈现出“大聚集，大分散”的特点，同领域内作者合作交流较紧密，不同领域间的研究者缺乏合作，国家机构上，美国处于主导地位，但中国与其差距在迅速缩小。分析认为，灾害风险评估的新技术、气候变化、灾害风险各学科融合将是灾害风险研究的未来趋势。

关键词：灾害风险;CiteSpace;计量可视化分析;研究热点;未来趋势

中图分类号：X 432

Abstract：Due to climate change，urbanization，population growth and other reasons，the global disaster risk is increasing.The disaster risk has aroused the common concern of scholars at home and abroad，and the number of related literary selections has increased rapidly.It is not only helpful for domestic scholars to understand the development of international disaster risk research，but also can provide reference for the localization of disaster risk research and development in China.Based on wos database and CiteSpace visualization software，this paper analysizes the international “disaster risk” literature from 2000 to 2020，conducts the research content，hot spots，authors，countries and institutions of disaster risk through cluster analysis and cooccurrence analysis，and finds that： in terms of research content，the number of international disaster risk papers has shown a rapid upward trend since 2015，and the research mainly focuses on the following aspects In terms of Sendai framework，artificial intelligence，spatiotemporal data analysis，disaster preparedness，social capacitybuilding，key assessment links，scientific knowledge，super El Nino event，etc.;in terms of research focus，it mainly focuses on “Sendai framework”，“disaster risk assessment”，“disaster risk prevention and control”; in terms of research authors，countries and institutions，the distribution of authors presents a “large aggregation，large scale” In the national institutions，the United States is in the leading position，but the gap between China and China is rapidly narrowing.In the future，the integration of new technology of disaster risk assessment，climate change and disaster risk will be the research direction of disaster risk in the future.

Key words：disaster risk;CiteSpace;quantitative visualization analysis;research hotspot;future trend

0 引言

近20年來，全球灾害频发，给不同的国家都造成了严重损失，影响到个人的正常生活和国家的有序发展。据中新网报道2010年全球有4 200万人因灾流离失所，人数是2009年的两倍，同时气候变化，改变了灾害发生的频率和强度，进一步加剧全球的灾害风险。……