骆永昆

摘要：近年来，美国不断加大对东南亚渗透力度，欲拉拢东南亚南海声索国与中国对抗。东南亚一些国家虽有意与美国合作制衡中国，但在中美博弈日益加剧背景下，相关国家态度谨慎，坚持不在中美之间“选边站”。东南亚国家未积极迎合美国，相关国家领导人发挥了主要作用。未来，维持“大国平衡”仍是东南亚国家在南海问题上的主要战略选项。当前，中国与东南亚各国正致力于携手打造更高水平的战略伙伴关系，构建更为紧密的命运共同体，但受南海争端的困扰，少数南海声索国目前不会彻底放弃“拉美制华”战略。东南亚、中国和美国三方的复杂博弈关系将决定本地区的国际政治秩序和南海争端的前景。

关键词：中美博弈;东南亚;南海争端;战略选择

[中图分类号] D833            [文献标识码]  A                [文章编号] 1003-2479（2021）04-040-10

The Strategy Option for the South China Sea Claimants in Southeast Asia Under the

Background of the Sino-US Game

LUO Yongkun

Abstract： In recent years， the United States has been enhancing its relations with Southeast Asian nations， trying to persuade the South China Sea claimants to fight against China. Although some ASEAN countries intend to side with the U.S.， they are cautious and insist on the policy of "taking no sides" in the context of the increasingly intensifying game between China and the U.S.. The attitude to forge friendly relations with China by the leaders of the relevant Southeast Asian countries is the major reason for their cautious policy to the US. In the future， maintaining the power balance is still the main strategic option for Southeast Asian countries on the South China Sea issue. China and Southeast Asian countries are committed to working together to build a higher-level strategic partnership and a closer community with a shared future. However， due to the South China Sea dispute， the South China Sea claimants will not give up the policy of "siding with the U.S. to confront China". Once the pro-U.S. and anti-China leaders come to power in Southeast Asia， relevant countries may fall in favor of the U.S. on the South China Sea issue. The complex game among Southeast Asia， China and the U.S. will determine the regional political order and the future of the South China Sea dispute.

Key Words： Game between China and the U.S.; Southeast Asia; South China Sea; Strategy Option

南海问题是中国与东南亚国家关系中的一个敏感问题，也是当前中美博弈中的一个重要问题。从特朗普执政到拜登执政时期，美国不断加大对南海问题的介入力度，挑拨东南亚国家在南海上“聯美对华”。东南亚南海声索国① 在南海问题上也倾向于拉拢美国制衡中国。在中美博弈日益加剧、美国积极拉拢东南亚国家的背景下，东南亚南海声索国在南海问题上是否会倒向美国、是否会与美国合作共同制衡中国成为各方关注的焦点。

一、美国积极拉拢东南亚

美国一向重视东南亚国家。奥巴马执政时期，美国提出“重返”亚太战略，将东南亚作为美国亚太外交的重要一环。……