赵玲　吴雁萍

摘要： 长江禁捕承载着长江水生环境保护与渔业资源恢复的重要功能，同时也蕴含着潜在的社会稳定风险因素。为量化长江禁捕政策执行风险因素，评估风险等级，以安徽省、江苏省两地政策执行为例，分别从执行主体、目标群体、政策环境3个方面，建立风险评估指标体系，对各风险因素的影响程度进行打分，并运用控制区间和记忆模型（CIM）进行风险测量。结果表明：安徽省、江苏省两地禁捕政策执行风险概率处于中等水平。其中，执行主体职业能力素养、执行策略、目标群体利益受影响情况、补贴对象认定、当地经济发展情况、配套性支持政策为高风险因子。基于这一结果，参考各因素间的关联性，实现长江禁捕政策执行风险的精准识别和有效应对，保障政策顺利推行。

关键词： 长江禁捕;社会稳定;风险评估;CIM模型

中图分类号： F326.4 文献标识码： A 文章编号： 1000-4440（2021）01-0230-07

Implementation risks of the prohibition of fishing in Yangtze River based on CIM model

ZHAO Ling， WU Yan-ping

（College of Marine Culture and Law， Shanghai Ocean University， Shanghai 201306， China）

Abstract： The prohibition of fishing in Yangtze River not only carries important functions of aquatic environment protection and restoration of fishery resources， but also contains potential social stability risk factors. In order to quantify the risk factors and assess the risk levels of the policy， this essay was based on the implementation of policies in Anhui province and Jiangsu province， and the risk evaluation index system was established from the aspects of execution subject， target group， policy environment. Impact degree of the risk factors was graded and analyzed based on the controlled interval and memory （CIM） model. The results showed that the implementation risks of the policies in Anhui and Jiangsu were at medium level. In addition， the professional competence of execution subject， executive strategy， the impact on the target group's interests， the identification of subsidies， local economic development， and supporting policies were the high-risk factors. Based on this result， with reference to the correlation among various factors in the risk system， the implementation risks of the prohibition of fishing in Yangtze River can be accurately identified and effectively responded to ensure the smooth implementation.

Key words： the prohibition of fishing in Yangtze River;social stability;risk assessment;controlled interval and memory（CIM） model

長江是世界上水生生物多样性最为丰富的河流之一，长期以来，由于受过度捕捞、河道整治、水域污染等多重因素影响，长江水生环境日趋恶化[1]，渔业种质资源下降，长江已进入“无鱼”等级。习近平总书记多次强调“要把修复长江生态环境摆在压倒性位置，把实施重大生态修复工程作为推动长江经济带发展项目的优先选项”。2018年9月，国务院颁布《关于加强长江水生生物保护工作的意见》，明确规定自2020年起，推进长江流域重点水域实现十年禁捕[2]。禁捕的执行对于长江渔业资源养护具有重大意义，但政策本身的结构复杂性、规模庞大性、时间长久性和环境多变性决定了政策执行可能存在相关社会风险。……